Democrats’ Chances of Regaining House Are Improving. But It’s No Sure Bet. 

(Bloomberg) -- Democrats’ prospects for retaking control of the U.S. House have brightened during the past two months, although success in the November election is no sure bet, a CBS News election model released Sunday shows.

If the election were held today, Democrats would win 222 seats in the House, up from 219 in June, according to CBS’s model, which is based on voter surveys in 57 competitive congressional districts. The estimate had a margin of error of plus or minus 11 seats.

A party needs 218 seats to control the House, and Democrats would need to win at least 23 additional seats in the midterm elections to wrest power from Republicans.

Voters surveyed said they view the 2018 election as especially important, perhaps suggesting an outsize turnout in November compared with other off-year elections. Seventy-six percent of respondents said they would definitely vote in the midterms.

Women were even more likely to see 2018 as a pivotal year, according to CBS. Almost nine out of ten women polled said their 2018 vote will be at least as important as that in a presidential election, with one in five saying it’s more important.

Most women said President Donald Trump will be a factor in their vote, with more expressing opposition to him than support, 39 percent to 30 percent, the poll found. Democratic and independent women were twice as likely as Republican women to say this year’s election is even more important than a presidential election.

YouGov, an online polling company, conducted the survey of 4,989 registered voters on behalf of CBS from Aug. 10-16. The margin of error was plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

©2018 Bloomberg L.P.