Market Favorite Inches Higher in Brazil's Presidential Poll
Market Favorite Edges Higher in Brazil's Latest Election Poll
(Bloomberg) -- Market-friendly candidate Geraldo Alckmin gained only marginally in Brazil’s presidential race and still trails in third place, according to an opinion survey published by political news website Poder360.
The former Sao Paulo governor, who last month was endorsed by the largest coalition of political parties, garnered 9 percent of voter intentions, compared with 8 percent in June and 7 percent and May -- within the survey’s margin of error. Support for far-right congressman Jair Bolsonaro eased marginally to 20 percent, from 21 percent in June and 25 percent in May. Leftist former Ceara Governor Ciro Gomes remained unchanged at 13 percent, the poll showed.
“We can’t yet say for sure that there’s a real trend of sustainable growth” for Alckmin, Poder360 director Fernando Rodrigues wrote in an analysis of the survey. The poll, he added, was carried out when the former Sao Paulo governor benefited from positive media exposure following news of his large political alliance.
Protest Vote
The Bovespa stock index rose on publication of the poll as it appeared to confirm market optimism over Alckmin’s electoral agreement, according to Rafael Cortez, a political analyst at Tendencias Consultoria. "Domestically, the election scenario is the main driver of market sentiment," he said.
But, he added, the most important takeaway from the poll remained the high number of those interviewed who remain undecided or who intend to cast a protest vote. At 43 percent, that number is higher than the level of support obtained by any individual candidate, the poll showed.
After years of corruption scandals and economic crisis, Brazilians are increasingly disillusioned about the political class. Without former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is jailed for corruption and likely to be barred from running, there’s considerable dispersion of votes among the top contenders. Combined, those factors make this the most unpredictable election since the end of Brazil’s military regime in 1985.
The scenarios presented by Poder360 do not include Lula, who still leads other opinion polls.
The survey was based on 3,000 interviews carried out through phone calls between July 25 and July 28 in all 26 states and the federal district. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.
To contact the reporters on this story: Bruce Douglas in Brasilia Newsroom at bdouglas24@bloomberg.net;Raymond Colitt in Brasilia at rcolitt@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Vivianne Rodrigues at vrodrigues3@bloomberg.net, Walter Brandimarte
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