Who Stands Where Is What The No-Confidence Vote Will Reveal
The Lok Sabha will on Friday debate the no-confidence motion against the Narendra Modi government. This is the first such vote in 15 years. Ironically, it was a National Democratic Alliance government, led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, that faced the no-trust vote the last time in 2003.
Who moved the motion?
It was moved by N Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party, which pulled out of the NDA government over the special status for Andhra Pradesh. The motion needed the support of 50 Members of Parliament. For TDP’s 16 MPs, that came from the Indian National Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party.
What will it achieve?
The purpose of a trust vote is to challenge the government’s claim that it has the requisite majority in the Lok Sabha. In this case, the stability of the Modi government isn't in question as the BJP by itself has numbers beyond the half-way mark.
Then Why Seek A No-Trust Vote?
The key factor to watch is how the BJP’s allies vote. It has had a difficult relationship with its allies, with the TDP and the PDP breaking away. Several media reports claimed the BJP had managed to persuade the miffed Shiv Sena. But Arvind Sawant, a Shiv Sena MP, told BloombergQuint that it hasn’t been decided yet.
The vote will also show where as yet non-aligned parties like the YSR Congress, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Telangana Rashtra Samithi and the Biju Janata Dal stand. The way they vote will be an indication of how popular the Modi government remains.
It also gives the opposition an opportunity to corner Modi on key issues ahead of the next general election. Senior Congress leader Anand Sharma indicated as much.
Our campaign is to expose them, tell people the truth so that they are deposed for good when the general elections are there. This is the launch of a campaign which will eventually send them packing in 2019.Anand Sharma, Senior Congress Leader
What Will Modi Gain?
It isn’t just the opposition that will be looking to influence public perception. The debate is expected to end with a speech by the prime minister, which would set the tone for his re-election campaign in 2019.