(Bloomberg) -- Former Army Captain Jair Bolsonaro leads the field in the race for Brazil’s presidency when Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s candidacy is discounted, a survey by polling firm Ibope showed.
The far-right candidate has 17 percent of vote intentions, followed by former Environment Minister Marina Silva with 13 percent. Left-wing candidate Ciro Gomes attracted 8 percent, while the former governor of Sao Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin, scored 6 percent.
Lula is currently in jail and will likely be barred from standing in October’s elections, but Ibope also run a scenario in which the ex-president was included. He polled at 33 percent, with Bolsonaro in second place with 15 percent.
A Datafolha poll published earlier this month showed Bolsonaro with 19 percent, and Silva with between 14 and 15 percent in scenarios excluding Lula.
Years of economic stagnation and corruption scandals have fueled voter disillusion with the country’s political class. Indeed, eight out of 10 Brazilians don’t trust political parties, according to a recent INCT poll.
As a result, many voters are undecided about what candidates to support. That and a large dispersion of support for the top candidates make this the most unpredictable election since the end of the country’s military regime, according to a study published earlier this week by Itau Unibanco bank.
The poll commissioned by the National Industry Confederation, or CNI, interviewed 2,000 people June 21-24 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
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