Obrador Ahead by 23 Points in Poll a Week Before Mexican Vote

(Bloomberg) -- Mexican presidential frontrunner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is almost 23 percentage points ahead of his nearest rival in Consulta Mitofsky’s final poll, released one week before the vote.

Lopez Obrador led Ricardo Anaya, who represents a coalition of right- and left-leaning parties, 48.1 percent to 25.5 percent, with ruling PRI party candidate Jose Antonio Meade at 22.5 percent, according to the poll.

Voter preference rose slightly for the leftist candidate, known as AMLO, from the previous Mitofsky poll in early June, while support for Anaya fell slightly and rose a bit for Meade, the poll showed.

Mexicans are poised to hand Lopez Obrador a victory in the July 1 election, which would mark a broad shift in government toward the left after decades of centrist and right-leaning administrations. The voting will also include a complete overhaul of congressional seats, and some polls put Lopez Obrador’s Morena party within reach of a majority in both houses.

Mitofsky’s results exclude almost 22 percent of non-respondents. They were divided into two camps: more than 21 percent who said they wouldn’t vote for any of the options, and fewer than 1 percent who said they didn’t want to respond or didn’t know who they’d vote for, according to Mitofsky.

The survey included 1,000 registered voters interviewed in person from June 16-19. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

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