Annexure 1: CSDS Survey Shows 47% Indians Don’t Want BJP Govt Back
Forty-seven percent of Indians believe the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government does not deserve a second innings in power, a survey conducted by ABP and CSDS showed on Thursday, 24 May. The numbers against the BJP take after the numbers against the Congress back in July 2013, with a whopping 39 percent vote against the UPA, nine months before the 2014 national elections.
The Mood of the Nation survey shows Congress taking lead in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, while spelling bad news for the ruling BJP, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) taking a hit in popularity in several states.
The survey predicts which party would have an advantage, if snap elections were to happen.
BJP allies include: Shiv Sena (only in Maharashtra), Shiromani Akali Dal (only in Punjab), Lok Janshakti Party (only in Bihar), Janata Dal-United (only in Bihar), Bodoland People’s Front, Rashtriya Samaj Paksha, Republican Party of India (A), Apna Dal, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and All Jharkhand Students Union Party.
Congress allies include Rashtriya Janata Dal (only in Bihar and Jharkhand), Nationalist Congress Party (only in Maharashtra), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Manithaneya Makkal Katchi, Puthiya Tamizhagam, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (only in Jharkhand), Indian Union Muslim League (only in Kerala and Tamil Nadu), Revolutionary Socialist Party (only in Kerala), Hindustan Awam Morcha, Swabhimani Paksha and Bahujan Vikas Aghadi.
BSP allies include Samajwadi Party, Janata Dal (Secular) and Indian National Lok Dal (INLD). The survey was not conducted in Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, Goa, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Meghalaya. Source for estimates: Mood of the Nation (MOTN) surveys conducted by Lokniti-CSDS in May 2017, January 2018 and May 2018.
The survey polled responses from 15,859 participants across 19 states between 27 April and 17 May 2018, to arrive at its conclusions.
The survey found nearly half (47%) of the total 15,859 respondents of the opinion that the Modi government does not merit another opportunity to govern India after the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Less than 2 of every 5 (39%) thought it did deserve a second innings in power, with the rest being non-committal.Excerpt from the CSDS Survey
In what could be the biggest gain for the grand old party, the survey says Congress is likely to get a surprise 49 percent vote share. Meanwhile, the BJP’s popularity has plummeted to just 34 percent still voicing support for the NDA, with others bagging 17 percent.
Despite the BJP forming the government in Madhya Pradesh three consecutive times, the party’s popularity has declined, with a meagre 34 percent vote share. CSDS adds that Congress is looking at a 49 percent vote share, leading by a comfortable 15 percentage point margin.
The BJP currently lags behind the Congress by a 5 percentage point vote share, the survey found.
The Mood of the Nation survey states that the Congress is likely to bag a 44 percent vote share, compared to a predicted 39 percent by the Vasundhara Raje-led BJP in the state, if elections to the 200-member assembly are held at this time.
State Congress president Sachin Pilot told ABP News that he is confident of the grand old party bagging an absolute majority in Rajasthan. He said that the senior leadership will decide on forming an alliance with Mayawati's party.
The BJP-JD(U) combine can rest easy in Bihar. The Nitish Kumar government has kept voters happy, the survey says.
The survey indicates that the alliance’s performance will be exceptionally good defeating the Congress-RJD alliance if snap polls were to happen.
One year into the Yogi Adityanath government and the NDA’s vote share in India’s largest voting state has dropped to 35 percent.
Regional parties show an upward incline, with 53 percent placing their faith in them. The UPA’s vote share has increased to 12 percent in the state, indicating that the SP-BSP combine holds favour in the state.
Maharashtra shows an inclination towards the NDA with 48 percent picking the BJP-led alliance. The UPA isn’t too far behind, standing at 40 percent. Others in the state have 21 percent on their side if the state goes to polls today.
However, the big hurdle for the BJP will be fighting former ally, and Maharashtra’s political powerhouse, the Shiv Sena. The Sena has made it clear, in no uncertain terms that 2019 will not see the party form an alliance with the BJP.
Perhaps a sign of the BJP’s changing fortunes, following the party’s 99-seat win in the state’s 2017 elections, the survey indicates a rise in support for Congress, and a drop in figures for the BJP. The survey indicated that even though the vote share margin between the Congress and the BJP is decreasing, the BJP still has a clear lead with 54 percent vote share against Congress’s 42 percent.
(With inputs from ABP and CSDS)