(Bloomberg) -- Carles Puigdemont’s removal from Catalonia’s political scene to a German jail forces the separatist movement to take a decision: keep bickering on the way ahead, or set aside outstanding differences and form a regional government.
The former Catalan president’s detention in Germany on Sunday was hailed by anti-separatist forces as a decisive blow against the push for Catalan independence. In a boost for Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, Puigdemont now exits the political stage, at least for now, and is unable to influence events in Barcelona.
Yet pending Puigdemont’s return to Spain, the risk is his detention acts as the catalyst needed to pressure sparring separatist camps into unity three months after regional elections.
“The state is attacking the heart of democracy making a general cause against its political adversaries,” Roger Torrent, the speaker of the Catalan parliament, said in a televised statement. He called for a common front to help preserve Catalan democracy rights and liberties.
Spain is struggling to move on from the events of late last year when the force of separatist sentiment in Catalonia ran into the rock of the central government in Madrid’s refusal to allow Puigdemont’s attempt to split the region from Spain. Protests on Sunday night on the streets of Barcelona that left about 100 people seeking medical attention and blockades of Catalan roads were a reminder the wounds remain far from healed.
“At first sight, it all looks such a mess,” said Caroline Gray, lecturer at Aston University in the U.K. who specializes in nationalist movements. “But the fact is that political life goes on and Catalonia still needs a government.”
The murky picture extended into markets, where Spanish government bonds were little changed as investors weighed the Catalan news against a sovereign upgrade from Standard & Poor’s late Friday. Spain’s bonds even outperformed their Italian counterparts amid investor concern over the makeup of Italy’s next government.
While the images of protesters clashing with riot police is negative, the most likely outcome from the latest Catalan flare-up could be new regional elections, Adrian Zunzunegui, head of Iberian equity at Kepler Cheuvreux, said in a note to clients on Monday.
“Looks like the separatist movement is falling apart,” he said. “Noise is bad news in any case. Uncertainty will last for at least another two months.”
Puigdemont was held by German highway police on Sunday near the Danish border after attending a weekend event in Finland. He has been living in exile in Brussels since October, when Rajoy used emergency powers to sack the Catalan president and disband his government after his attempt to declare a republic, an act in breach of Spain’s constitution.
While Madrid went about restoring Spain’s constitutional order in Catalonia, judges began a crackdown that culminated in a Supreme Court judge declaring on Friday that Puigdemont and other separatist leaders would face prosecution for rebellion.
It was another blow to the secessionist campaign that has been in limbo since separatist parties emerged with a narrow majority in December’s regional elections. With Puigdemont in self-exile and other leaders abroad or in jail, they have so far failed to form a government.
An attempt to elect as president Jordi Turull, the spokesman of Puigdemont’s former government, failed last week when the radical separatist party CUP abstained from voting for him. Turull was himself jailed on remand on Friday, forcing the Catalan parliament to abandon a second attempt to hold a vote to make him president.
One outcome could be that CUP deputies rethink their decision to abstain, Gray said. Eyes will also be on the Catalunya en Comu platform linked to the anti-austerity party Podemos to see if they might support efforts to elect a government.
Puigdemont’s detention is a “big hit” for the separatist movement because he has been central to its narrative in recent months, said Pablo Simon, a political science professor at Carlos III University in Madrid. Even so, it may also help to focus their energies on ensuring a new government is formed, he said.
To be sure, not everyone is convinced that Puigdemont’s detention changes things much.
“In the short term, it will lead to calls for the separatist movement to be more united,” said Antonio Barroso, a political risk analyst at Teneo Intelligence in London. “In the end though, the internal divisions are there and I don’t think they’re going to disappear.”
Catalonia’s deadlocked politics have implications across the Spanish political spectrum. The tough legal crackdown on separatism sits badly with the Basque nationalists whose votes Rajoy’s minority government needs to pass a budget and other important legislation. That friction may mean that a regional government in Catalonia ultimately helps Rajoy’s case with the Basques.
The Catalan crisis has meanwhile helped Ciudadanos, the pro-Spain force that won the most votes of any party in the regional elections, vault over Rajoy’s People’s Party to take the lead in national opinion polls. Its leader Albert Rivera celebrated Puigdemont’s detention Sunday in a tweet that said “the flight of the coup-monger is finished.”
©2018 Bloomberg L.P.