Now What? These Three People Must Fix the Mess in Italian Politics
Here are the three people who will have to try to find a way out of Italy’s political gridlock.
(Bloomberg) -- Italy is waking up with a headache today – and not from the election night celebrations. Here are the three people who will have to try to find a way out of the political gridlock. And a fourth whose time may finally be up.
Sergio Mattarella: The next move belongs to the 76-year-old Italian president. He's the one who needs to nominate the next prime minister. To do that he'll need hold critical talks with two political leaders he had hoped he'd never have to deal with again.
Luigi Di Maio: The Italian establishment has spent years trying to keep the Five Star Movement from power. Now its leader is likely to demand a chance to form the next government. For a profile of the 31-year-old leader, click here.
Matteo Salvini: Even worse for Mattarella, the anti-immigration rabble-rouser was the biggest winner. Salvini's League won enough seats to take control of a center-right alliance which will be the biggest group in a hung parliament. He'll also be pushing to be given his chance.
Silvio Berlusconi: He promised he'd complete a remarkable political comeback but saw his party eclipsed by Salvini. The 81-year-old billionaire may now be a spent force.
One option would be for the League to break its pact with Berlusconi and the others on the center-right and go with Five Star. Although Di Maio and Salvini each ruled out an alliance during the campaign, Salvini said in October that if the center-right didn’t win a majority, he’d call Five Star co-founder Beppe Grillo. But after taking control of the Italian right, Salvini has little incentive to play second fiddle to Di Maio.
While not a doomsday scenario, a Five Star-League tie up could spook investors across Europe. Italian bonds fell and the euro dropped as much as 0.4 percent before recovering Monday morning. Italy’s benchmark FTSE MIB Index dropped as much as 2.1 percent.
Even before the surprising showing by Five Star and the League, some analysts warned of complacency, and Deutsche Bank said Five Star may be a bigger threat than most people realize as it would block any attempt at forming a pro-European Union government, stymie the French-German efforts to reform the bloc – including introducing a banking union – and return to a policy of government largesse.
Quote of the day: “Di Maio victory, Italy ungovernable.” Headline in the La Stampa newspaper.
The governing Democratic Party took a hammering. Its vote count plunged to about 20 percent, and lawmaker Ettore Rosato said the party will go into opposition. That will end Paolo Gentiloni’s time as prime minister and wipe out any chance of a grand coalition with Forza Italia – an option favored by investors and Italy’s partners in the EU.
Who’s tweeting: The League’s Salvini’s first words are “Thank you;” Di Miao is congratulated. Piet P.H. Christiansen, an analyst at Danske Bank, said the chance of a Five Star-League coalition just went up.
In case you missed it: The vote was marred by Snafus; everything you need to know about Five Star; Berlusconi’s bravado rang hollow before the vote; and why Italy’s confused voters are in such a bad mood.
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Michael Winfrey at mwinfrey@bloomberg.net, Ben Sills Andrew J Barden
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