Balance of Power: Nearing a ‘Point of No Return’ for Turkey
Balance of Power: Nearing a Point of No Return for Turkey
(Bloomberg) -- Turkey watchers are beginning to think the unthinkable might happen: A hard split of NATO’s second-largest military from the West.
That sense is growing as a trial continues in New York, alleging what amounts to a Turkish conspiracy — right up to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — to undermine U.S. sanctions against Iran.
To many Turks, the courtroom drama is proof of a different plot — by the U.S. to topple Erdogan. The trial, recycling corruption charges crushed in Turkey in a so-called judicial coup attempt of 2013, is playing into a narrative of Western hostility the government has been pressing for several years. Erdogan lashed out again today, saying there’s a “clear” U.S. plan against Turkey.
A split has seemed inconceivable because the consequences would be so damaging. Turkey has built its military and security around NATO, while it is a potential highway to Europe for millions of refugees from Syria and elsewhere, should it open the gates. Turkey also depends on the West for trade, investment and finance.
Though still unlikely, a hard break with the West is no longer impossible, says Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat. “We may be passing a point of no return.”
Global Headlines
Mueller demands Deutsche docs | U.S. Special Counsel Robert Mueller subpoenaed documents from Germany’s largest lender, Deutsche Bank AG, a sign his Russia meddling investigation could be zeroing in on President Donald Trump’s business dealings. The development comes amid shifting stances from Trump’s lawyers, who are now insisting the president can’t be charged with obstruction of justice after earlier saying they hadn’t researched the matter.
Brexit blow up | The dramatic unraveling of the U.K.’s divorce deal yesterday laid bare one of the fundamental paradoxes of Brexit: Prime Minister Theresa May risks tearing apart the United Kingdom by pulling it out of the European Union. The trigger for the constitutional uproar was a proposal to give Northern Ireland special treatment. Suddenly, Scotland and Wales want to know why they can’t be an exception too.
North Korea outreach | Pyongyang’s declaration that its weapons program is complete may actually help clear the way for talks in the region, Kim Hong-gul, one of the few South Koreans to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, tells Bloomberg’s Kanga Kang. The United Nations’ undersecretary general for political affairs, Jeffrey Feltman, is testing the waters with a four-day visit to North Korea, as world diplomats scramble to diffuse tensions after its most powerful missile test yet.
Global tax wariness | Concerns are mounting from Europe to Asia over the fast-moving proposal to overhaul the U.S. tax code. European Union finance ministers are discussing today whether the plan violates international trade rules, while Chinese officials fret about the potential domestic market impact. And — so far, at least — Trump’s prediction that congressional progress on the bill would boost U.S. stocks hasn’t materialized.
Yemen’s slide toward the abyss | Saudi Arabian warplanes bombed the presidential palace in Yemen’s capital overnight, stepping up attacks on Houthi rebels after they killed the country’s former president — just when he appeared set to switch sides and offer a way out of the near three-year conflict. The death of Ali Abdullah Saleh plunges the Arab world’s poorest nation into deeper uncertainly, with many observers warning of increasing fragmentation and greater violence.
And finally... U.S. Supreme Court justices will spend some time talking about wedding cakes today when they hear arguments in a case involving a Colorado baker who refuses to cater same-sex weddings. It’s the first full-scale test of gay rights since the court legalized same-sex marriage nationwide in 2015 and comes a day after a decision to allow Trump’s travel ban to take full effect while legal challenges proceed. The Trump administration supports the baker, Jack Phillips, who has said, “The law is trying to force me to violate my faith.”
--With assistance from Kathleen Hunter and Brendan Scott
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Karl Maier at kmaier2@bloomberg.net.
©2017 Bloomberg L.P.