Brexit Countdown: Key Dates on the Way to December's Deadline

(Bloomberg) -- The U.K. and the European Union want negotiations on their post-Brexit relationship to start by the end of the year. For that to happen, the two sides must first overcome a stalemate over the financial settlement and the Irish border. If there’s no breakthrough, the prospect of talks collapsing without a deal rises significantly.

After a summit in October ended in failure, hopes are now pinned on a gathering of the bloc’s leaders in mid-December. EU governments need to conclude there’s been “sufficient progress” on the most pressing divorce issues before attention can turn to trade. Here’s a guide to the most crucial few weeks yet in the Brexit negotiations.

Nov. 22: Ambassadors Gather

With just three weeks to the summit, the EU’s Brussels-based ambassadors gather to talk about the likelihood of a breakthrough. They will also assess the internal preparations being made on the EU side for the transition arrangement and future relationship.

Nov. 27: More Negotiations?

No further talks between the U.K. and the EU have been confirmed, but a British official says the two sides are discussing holding another round of negotiations in Brussels. The last week of November is a likely date. After that, just 13 days remain before the summit. EU diplomats will want to use that time to draft their response to a potential U.K. offer, which they are going to present to leaders. This week isn’t a hard-and-fast deadline, and the U.K. will have some wiggle room right up until the actual summit, but the EU will probably consider it too late if May waits until then to present an offer.

Nov. 29: Prep Starts

Ambassadors have penciled in a possible meeting in Brussels to start drafting the summit conclusions. These words will hold the key to whether the second phase of negotiations -- the trade talks -- can start.

Dec. 4: Dinner, Again?

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will have dinner with Prime Minister Theresa May, according to the FT, which says an offer on the bill could be presented then. A European Commission spokesman declined to confirm, saying only that constructive talks are ongoing. Previous dinner dates haven’t gone so well.

Dec. 6: Heads Down

With a week to go, the ambassadors get serious. Whatever the state of the negotiations and the EU’s view of any British concessions, they get to work drafting the conclusions.

Dec. 11: Sherpa Session

Summit week. From the 27 national capitals, the presidents’ and prime ministers’ right-hand men and women travel to Brussels to cast their eye over and revise the draft conclusions. They’ll come with important messages from their leaders about whether to give Britain what it wants.

Dec. 12: Dotting the ‘i’s

European ministers come from the capitals to put the finishing touches to the summit conclusions. By now we should have a firm idea of whether the U.K. will get sufficient progress at the summit.

December 14-15: D-Day

It all comes down to this. 28 leaders locked in a room. While the discussion can go in any direction when they all meet face to face, leaders rarely rip up the preparatory work done in Brussels in the weeks before. The EU doesn’t want May to go to the summit to negotiate. Instead, they just want to deliver a verdict.

--With assistance from Viktoria Dendrinou and Zoe Schneeweiss

To contact the reporter on this story: Ian Wishart in Brussels at iwishart@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Emma Ross-Thomas at erossthomas@bloomberg.net, Heather Harris at hharris5@bloomberg.net, Nikos Chrysoloras

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