Euro-Area Confidence Rises More Than Forecast to Decade High

(Bloomberg) -- Euro-area economic confidence surged more than economists forecast in September, giving European Central Bank policy makers more positive news to consider as they decide on the future of their bond-buying program.

The index of industry and consumer sentiment increased to 113 in September from 111.9 the previous month, the European Commission in Brussels said on Thursday. The reading -- the highest in a decade -- was well above the median estimate of 112 in a Bloomberg survey.

The central bank’s Governing Council will have to weigh a booming economy against inflation showing few signs of a sustained pickup toward its goal, when it decides on adjustments to the asset purchase program on Oct. 26. ECB President Mario Draghi said on Monday the central bank will maintain as much stimulus as the euro-area economy needs.

“The ECB is likely to take comfort from the ongoing strengthening of sentiment given that domestic demand looks set to continue to support economic growth,” Fabio Fois, senior European economist at Barclays Plc in Milan said in a telephone interview.

The euro region is seen expanding at an annual pace of 1.7 percent this year and 1.8 percent next, according to the Commission’s latest estimates. The ECB expects even higher growth in 2017, at 2.2 percent, while it also projects 1.8 percent expansion next year.

The Commission’s report showed an improvement in sentiment “on the back of higher industry, retail trade and construction confidence.” Sentiment in the industrial sector rose to 6.6 from 5 in August. Among consumers, confidence increased to -1.2 from -1.5 in the previous month, while a separate business climate indicator rose to 1.34, the highest since April 2011.

The Euro Stoxx 50 index gained 0.3 percent with banking stocks among top performers, helped in part by a rally in the German bund yields, after the confidence data were released. The euro was slightly up at 1.18 against the U.S. dollar at 12:21 p.m. in Frankfurt.

In Germany, business confidence unexpectedly slid for a second month in September, according to Ifo Institute data on Monday. While that’s a sign that Europe’s largest economy is struggling to improve on its pace of expansion, data on Wednesday showed Italian executives are the most optimistic they’ve been in a decade.

--With assistance from Andre Tartar Kristian Siedenburg Alessandra Migliaccio and Giovanni Salzano

To contact the reporters on this story: Marcus Bensasson in Athens at mbensasson@bloomberg.net, Lorenzo Totaro in Rome at ltotaro@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Fergal O'Brien at fobrien@bloomberg.net, Kevin Costelloe