Zuma May Fire Critics in Cabinet to Strengthen Grip on ANC

(Bloomberg) -- South African President Jacob Zuma may reshuffle his cabinet to remove some of his most strident critics and give a post to his ex-wife and former African Union chairwoman, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, analysts said.

Dlamini-Zuma, who’s seen as the president’s favored candidate to replace him as leader of the African National Congress in December, will be eligible to join the cabinet once the party completes its plan, announced Sept. 8, to install her as a member of parliament.

“She’s deployed to parliament, which means that she may go to cabinet,” Aubrey Matshiqi, an independent political analyst, said by phone on Monday. “In order to re-balance his power, Zuma will probably go after those who have been vocal in their condemnation of him.”

Zuma, 75, packed his administration with loyalists and fired Pravin Gordhan as finance minister in a cabinet reshuffle on March 31 that prompted two credit-ratings agencies to downgrade the nation’s foreign-currency debt to junk. Business leaders have said they’re expecting further ratings downgrades.

The president won’t comment on speculation about cabinet changes, Zuma’s spokesman, Bongani Ngqulunga, said by text message.

Dlamini-Zuma, 68, has received backing to become the next ANC leader from the party’s women’s league, part of its youth league and the premiers of some predominantly rural provinces. Her main rival is Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, 64, who’s supported by the nation’s biggest labor-union federation.

Medical Doctor

A medical doctor by profession, Dlamini-Zuma has been active in the ANC for more than 40 years and was appointed Minister of Health in South Africa’s first democratically elected government. She’s also held positions as minister of Foreign Affairs and Home Affairs.

Even so, a decision to appoint her to the cabinet may be more influenced by politics than experience, according to Susan Booysen, a political science professor at the University of the Witwatersrand’s School of Governance in Johannesburg.

“We do not know to what extent these moves have been pre-calculated to enable an easier transition from Zuma” to one of his supporters who is already in cabinet, she said by phone. Zuma may want “to ensure that Ramaphosa is rivaled and stops being such an obvious successor,” Booysen said.

Since the last change to his administration, Zuma has survived a second attempt to oust him as leader from within his own party and a motion of no confidence in parliament that was backed by at least 24 members of the ANC in a secret ballot.

Smoother Transition

If another attempt to remove Zuma succeeds, Dlamini-Zuma’s appointment as a lawmaker may smooth the transition, according to Dirk Kotze, a political science professor at the University of South Africa in the capital, Pretoria.

“If there’s any risk of Zuma vacating his position before December or even before 2019 in the national elections, then she is a possible candidate to fill that gap,” he said.

The ANC’s biggest allies, the Congress of South African Trade Unions and the South African Communist Party, have increasingly criticized Zuma, calling for him to step down. Their leaders will probably be his first targets in any cabinet change, according to Matshiqi.

“If there is a cabinet reshuffle, it will be about strengthening his position because the way the motion of no confidence went, portraying that his position is weakening and he needs to reverse that,” Matshiqi said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Amogelang Mbatha in Johannesburg at ambatha@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Karl Maier at kmaier2@bloomberg.net, Karl Maier, Gordon Bell