‘Cummings Effect’ Hit Confidence in Johnson’s U.K. Government

(Bloomberg) -- Boris Johnson’s decision to stick by his chief aide Dominic Cummings after he allegedly broke pandemic lockdown rules led to a sharp drop in confidence in the U.K. government, academics found in a study published in the Lancet medical journal.

Besides any political fallout, trust in Johnson’s leadership is important as he urges people to follow government guidance during the ongoing coronavirus crisis, they said.

Researchers at University College London who looked at survey results from 40,000 people between April 24 and June 11 found confidence clearly decreased in the days after May 22, when it was revealed that Cummings, realizing his wife was sick from Covid-19, decided to drive her and their son 260 miles (418 kilometers) from London to Durham, in the north of England.

The survey has regularly been asking people to state their confidence in the government’s handling of the crisis on a seven-point scale. Between May 21 and 25, it dropped 0.4 points in England, which researchers described as a “Cummings effect.” There was no corresponding drop in confidence in the governments of Wales and Scotland.

The study found confidence in Johnson’s government hasn’t recovered, and that willingness to adhere to the government’s virus control rules declined more steeply after May 22, especially in England.

‘Negative Consequences’

“Public trust in the government’s ability to manage the pandemic is crucial as it underpins public attitudes and behaviors at a precarious time for public health,” said Daisy Fancourt, lead author of the study. “These data illustrate the negative and lasting consequences that political decisions can have.”

Cummings insisted his actions, which were to ensure there was someone to care for his child, didn’t break government rules that infected people should stay home, and Johnson defended him. But opinion polls at the time showed clear majorities of voters thought he had broken the rules and should quit.

The aide was also mocked for his insistence that a subsequent half-hour drive with his family to a local beauty spot had been to test his eyesight, as he was worried he wasn’t safe to drive.

Asked for comment on the research, Johnson’s office said it was important for the nation to “pull together.”

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