Keep Sudan’s Peace Deal On Track

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- After months of unrest, before and after the toppling in April of the dictator Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s ruling military junta and the opposition alliance have reached a landmark deal. The two sides will share power for three years, after which an election will allow for a final transition to civilian rule. The deal is to be signed this week.

The agreement was made possible by a number of factors, none more important than the tenacity of the Sudanese protesters, who refused to be intimidated by the junta—not even after scores were killed in a brutal crackdown on peaceful demonstrations. And a vital role was played by the African Union and Ethiopia, which mediated the talks. Pressure on the generals by the Western powers, including the U.S., helped, too.

The generals were at best reluctant to make the deal, and they may now be counting on the world to move on under the assumption that Sudan’s path to democracy is secure. Such inattention would allow the junta to resume full control, either by coopting the democracy movement or by cracking down more brutally when their country is no longer under international attention. 

It falls on the AU and the wider international community to make sure the deal sticks. Here are some of the things they should be doing:

Watch the generals: The greatest risk is that the junta will try to make an end-run around the civilian opposition, and capture the transition process, as they did when Bashir was ousted in April. The general most likely to lead any counter-revolutionary effort is Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, commonly known as Hemeti. A close ally of Bashir’s, he is technically the vice president of the junta, but commands the most powerful paramilitary forces. He was the commander of the dreaded Janjaweed forces blamed for a campaign of terror and ethnic cleansing in Darfur.

So long as Hemeti remains a power in the transitional process, Sudan’s democratic hopes will remain under threat. 

Watch the women: The opposition alliance that made the deal with the junta carries a great burden of expectation from the protesters. As they arm-wrestle with the generals over how the country ought to be governed, one useful gauge of their performance will be their ability to extract freedoms for women.

Sudanese women, whose rights are highly circumscribed, led the anti-Bashir protests from the start. It is an ill omen that they were not also leading the negotiations for the power-sharing deal, but they will expect to have a major voice in the transition process.  

The canary in this particular coal mine is Alaa Salah, who became an icon of Sudan’s democratic aspirations when a video showing her leading a group of chanting protesters went viral. Her youth—she is 22—makes a direct role in the transition unlikely, but her newfound celebrity guarantees that Salah’s perception of the changes will inform international opinion.  

Watch the investigations: As part of the power-sharing deal, the junta has agreed to an independent investigation into the violence against protesters. Suspicion has inevitably fallen on Hemeti’s paramilitaries.

It is hard to be optimistic about an investigation conducted while the military—and especially Hemeti—still have a hand in power. But the protesters are unlikely to back down from their demands for justice. The logical solution is to have outsiders, perhaps the AU, conduct the investigations.

The protesters will also want to see investigations into Bashir’s decades-long misrule. The former dictator is being tried for corruption, but his misdeeds go far deeper. Any attempts by the junta to go easy on their former boss will enrage Sudanese, and endanger the democratic transition. 

Watch the Saudis and Emiratis: In the secret negotiations that led to the power-sharing deal, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates apparently agreed to drop their crucial backing of the junta in its confrontation with the protesters. Without their most powerful patrons, the generals had to agree to the deal.

The Saudis and Emiratis may have backed down under pressure from the U.S., or they may independently have concluded that the protests were an irresistible force. They will play a vital role in the transition process, with injections of investment and aid to the Sudanese economy. Keeping them neutral in transitional politics will be a challenge for the opposition alliance, as well as the international community.   

Three years may seem a long time for the outside world to stay focused on a transitional process that is certain, by its very nature, to be messy and complicated. But getting it right in Sudan is vital, not only for the country, but for the region. Given its long, painful history of instability, three years is not such a long time after all.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Gibney at jgibney5@bloomberg.net

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Bobby Ghosh is a columnist and member of the Bloomberg Opinion editorial board. He writes on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and the wider Islamic world.

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