Armin Laschet Will Lead the CDU, But Not Necessarily Germany

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Armin Laschet, the jovial but somewhat lightweight premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, is of course relieved and elated to be the new boss of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union, after a surprisingly tight race among three contenders. And so is Chancellor Angela Merkel.

That’s because Laschet is the only one of the trio who bears no personal grudge against her. He’s also the one who most explicitly represents continuity with the Merkel era, which began for the party 21 years ago when she became its leader, and for the country 16 years ago when she took the helm of government.

But Laschet, even as chairman of the strongest party, may not become its candidate for the chancellery in the German federal election of Sept. 26. He’s been slipping in the polls as of late, after confusingly zigging and zagging in his state’s struggle against Covid-19. More importantly, there’s another conservative to whom Germans, including most Christian Democrats, ascribe better chances in September.

That man is Markus Soeder, the premier of Bavaria and leader of the Christian Social Union, which is the CDU’s conservative sister party. By tradition, the CDU and CSU — jointly known as the Union in Germany — form one group in the federal parliament and agree on one common candidate for chancellor.

All conservative chancellors since 1949 hailed from the larger CDU (the CSU only exists in Bavaria). And the only two CSU candidates who ran for the office both lost. But Soeder, a protean and sly politico with a mischievous streak, could pull it off, as I first predicted in 2019.

During the pandemic, Soeder has cut a better figure as leader of a major state than Laschet has, arguing for tougher restrictions whenever Laschet mused about relaxing them. Bavaria hasn’t fared any better than other states in containing the virus. But voters see Soeder as consistent and clear, whereas they regard Laschet as wobbly.

Like Laschet, Soeder is relentlessly ambitious, but also comes across as not taking himself too seriously. During carnival, he likes to dress as outrageously as he can — he’s arrived at parties as an eerily convincing Marilyn Monroe and Shrek, among other characters.

The CDU and CSU — that is, Laschet and Soeder — will probably make the decision about the candidacy after March 14, when Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland Palatinate, two large western states, hold regional elections that’ll be seen as bellwethers.

And no matter who the candidate is, the Union is certainly odds-on to stay in power. It’s consistently remained ahead of all other parties in the polls (see chart). The Covid pandemic even extended its lead, by playing to the conservatives’ reputation of pragmatism, reliability and of competence in government.

Barring an unforeseeable upheaval, the three left parties — the environmentalist Greens, the center-left Social Democrats and the post-communist Left — will fall short of a majority of seats, and thus won’t be able to form a governing coalition. That means it’ll be up to the Union to approach others for a partnership.

The most likely coalition will be between it and the Greens. A few decades ago such a tie-up between the “Christian” Union — its original base was the clergy — and the counter-culture and post-hippie Greens would have been unthinkable. These days, however, both parties have become moderate enough to govern together in several federal states and cities. Both Soeder and Laschet have been getting chummy with the Greens, and negotiations should be swift and smooth.

Clearly, the temperament and character of the next German chancellor will make a difference in domestic, European and global politics. And Soeder would definitely have more stature than Laschet.

But the prospect of a coalition between the Union and the Greens suggests continuity as well. Germany under its next chancellor is likely to keep following its policy direction during the past year. It will accelerate its efforts against climate change. It will gradually take more responsibility in Europe and the world. And it will remain a centrist counterpoint to the populism and polarization that has infected some of its allies, including the U.S.

That’s Merkelism in a nutshell. Like Laschet, the chancellor has much to celebrate today.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Andreas Kluth is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He was previously editor in chief of Handelsblatt Global and a writer for the Economist. He's the author of "Hannibal and Me."

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