Zambia Currency Hits Record Low and Eurobonds Plunge
Zambia Currency, Eurobonds Extend Plunge as Debt Plan Fails to Convince
Zambia’s Eurobonds extended declines and its currency weakened to a record against the dollar after a group of bondholders rejected the government’s request for a six-month suspension of interest payments.
The announcement on Wednesday, a day after the southern African nation held a webcast to try convince creditors to approve the freeze while it drafts a restructuring plan, suggests any deal with creditors will take longer to reach than the speedy resolution the government outlined on Tuesday. Zambia’s next coupon payment is due on Oct. 14.
A committee of bondholders said in a statement that its “members are unable to provide a positive response to the consent solicitation request at this time given the absence of clarity on a number of issues.” Newstate Partners is advising the committee, which represents 14 investors holding 40% of Zambia’s $3 billion in Eurobonds, and is in “close contact” with lenders holding another 30%.
Zambia, the first African nation to seek debt relief from bondholders since the onset of the pandemic, aims to reach agreements with creditors by the end of a six-month interest standstill it’s seeking, Finance Minister Bwalya Ng’andu said on Tuesday’s webcast.
But he provided scant details on how the country plans to reduce its debt burden and negotiate relief from its main creditor, China. Zambia said it will treat all creditors on the same basis, but a deal with China is crucial as the country negotiates with the International Monetary Fund over an economic program, said Kevin Daly, investment director at Aberdeen Standard Investments, which owns Zambian bonds.
“Ng’andu said the right things about treating all creditors fairly,” Daly said. “But they are still drawing down China loans and they will have a big primary deficit next year, so there’s some inconsistency about the debt-sustainability message.”
Zambia’s 2027 Eurobonds extended losses, falling 3.6% on Wednesday to 48.42 cents in the dollar. That’s the lowest on a closing basis since June 18. The kwacha, which traded above 20 per dollar on Tuesday for the first time on the onshore market, slipped 0.1% to 20.0175 per dollar by 3:42 p.m. in Lusaka.
Dwindling Reserves
The nation has over the past decade taken on nearly $12 billion of debt even as growth slowed and foreign-exchange reserves dwindled. The pandemic accelerated the crisis, prompting the government last week to request an interest-payment holiday from holders of its $3 billion in Eurobonds while it plans a debt restructuring together with its adviser, Lazard Freres.
Ng’andu’s time frame to reaching deals with creditors and the IMF might be overambitious. Eurobond holders want the government to first reach a deal with the International Monetary Fund over an economic program, and a general election scheduled for August next year may complicate that. Neighboring Mozambique took about three years to restructure its Eurobonds after starting talks with investors in 2016.
“Debt restructuring takes a long time. It’s not an ideal situation, but that’s the reality,” Gregory Smith, emerging markets strategist at M&G Investments in London, said by phone Wednesday before the announcement from the bondholders’ committee. “Zambia still has a lot of work to do.”
A spokesman for Zambia’s finance ministry didn’t immediately respond to Bloomberg’s message requesting for comment. Ng’andu said on Sunday the government didn’t want to default, and had budgeted for external debt payments in case bondholders didn’t agree to a standstill.
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