Your Evening Briefing

(Bloomberg) --

China’s growth was at its slowest in almost three decades during the third quarter. It’s still decelerating, with darkening pictures for sales manager sentiment, factory prices and trade. The Trump administration has been saying since Oct. 11 that it’s close to an initial truce with Beijing, but Wall Street sees it happening by year’s end. If such a “phase one” deal doesn’t come to pass by Dec. 15, however, the White House will be forced to make good (or not) on its threat to impose 15% tariffs on $160 billion in Chinese imports. Moreover, any starter deal will likely put off key issues like Chinese industrial subsidies and U.S. attempts to shut out Chinese tech firms over alleged security threats.

The global trade war is roiling markets, economies and companies. Arm yourself with the latest developments: Sign up to get Bloomberg’s Terms of Trade newsletter in your inbox daily.

Here are today’s top stories

The gold options market is looking for what one trader called “a quick violent move,” with block trades betting the precious metal could almost triple in more than a year.

The U.S. economy was off to a modest start in the fourth quarter as consumers limited spending.

They flooded economies with ultra-cheap money. Risk-taking exploded and stock markets soared. Now central bankers are worried about what they may have wreaked, and what it may bring.

A White House official said he warned superiors that a hold on $391 million in Congressionally mandated security aid for Ukraine could be illegal. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump was reportedly aware of a whistleblower complaint about his actions regarding Ukraine when he decided to unfreeze the aid. Democrats said linkage of the funds to a demand that Ukraine open a probe of Joseph Biden constituted attempted extortion. Hearings in the Trump impeachment inquiry resume Dec. 4 before the House Judiciary Committee. Trump is invited.

Belarus kept its old factories, jobs and services alive after the USSR fell, Bloomberg Businessweek reports, creating a model for other former Soviet republics. Now the socialist success story is threatened by Russia.

Flooding rains, heavy snows and gusty winds across the U.S. are disrupting one of the busiest travel days of the year. And in the northeast, there may be more trouble Sunday when it’s time to go home.

What’s Sid Verma thinking about? The Bloomberg cross-asset editor says 2019 has been another setback for the conventional wisdom that the bond “bubble” is set to burst. Limited net supply and relentless demand are keeping debt markets on an even keel, Sid says, with next year bringing more of the same.

What you’ll need to know tomorrow

• Goldman’s Solomon and Blackstone’s Schwarzman predict 2020.
• It’s November, so that means Bitcoin is going berserk.
• Deutsche Bank is having a very big, very expensive yard sale.
• Want to test your DNA in China and the U.S.? See what happens.
• This is all you need to know about China’s latest crypto crackdown.
• Spain retrieved 3 tons of cocaine from a “narcosub.”
• A U.S. soccer team is worth $500 million, thanks to this tech giant.

What you’ll want to read in Bloomberg Pursuits

Stock exchanges aren’t what they used to be. Today, the only finance professionals on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange pull double duty as extras for bell-ringing ceremonies. Trading floors from Vancouver to Manchester and Paris are emptying thanks to electronic exchanges, and cities are looking for alternative uses for the beautiful buildings that housed them. Of course—make them into high-priced hotels.

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