Yield Curve Pioneer Has His Eye on ‘Four Horsemen’ of Recession

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(Bloomberg) --

Remember when the Treasury yield curve was signaling a looming recession? The curve stopped flashing those warning signs and the coast is clear now…right? Well, not so fast, says the man whose seminal work on the topic in the 1980s launched a million hot takes on the subject.

Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University and senior adviser at Research Affiliates, joins Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan in this week’s episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to talk about his dissertation on the yield curve and how he’s interpreting it at the moment. Harvey also discusses the “Four Horsemen” of a recession: the yield curve, protectionist trade policies, market volatility and a Duke survey of chief financial officers.

Harvey is joined by Bloomberg strategist Cameron Crise, who gives a trader’s perspective on how such academic research influences buying and selling decisions.

As always, the hosts and guests finish the podcast with the traditional discussion of “The Craziest Thing I Ever Saw in Markets (This Week).”  

Mentioned in this podcast:

• The Fourth Horseman of the Next Recession Approaches
• Alice’s Adventures in Factorland: Three Blunders That Plague Factor Investing
• The Management of Political Risk

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Topher Forhecz at tforhecz@bloomberg.net, Joshua Petri

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