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Yield Curve, Federal Reserve and Recession Fears Go Mainstream

Yield Curve, Federal Reserve and Recession Fears Go Mainstream

(Bloomberg) -- Trader worries over a slowdown in global economic growth are going mainstream.

The terms “Recession” and “Yield curve” spiked on Google Trends Friday as the U.S. government bond curve -- a reliable market signal of an impending recession -- inverted for the first time since 2007. “Federal Reserve System" also surged with President Donald Trump nominating former campaign adviser Stephen Moore to be a governor of the Federal Reserve. All were trending in the top 20 real-time search list as of 2 p.m. in New York.

Yield Curve, Federal Reserve and Recession Fears Go Mainstream

American stocks were set for their worst day in two months and bonds climbed after a slew of economic data reignited global growth fears. The preliminary overall U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index slowed to a 21-month low and Europe’s outlook was thrown into fresh doubt after reports showed weakness across France and Germany. Earlier in the day, data showed that activity in Japan’s manufacturing contracted for a second straight month.

Yield Curve, Federal Reserve and Recession Fears Go Mainstream

“There’s growth concerns coming from everywhere -- from Germany to the U.S.,” said Benjamin Lau, chief investment officer of Irvine, California-based Apriem Advisors, which manages around $740 million. “It tells us that the economy is weaker, decelerating faster than what people would have thought six or nine months ago when we hit the market top and the market started rolling over.”

Searches for “yield curve inversion” also spiked in early December, when volatile financial markets slumped over...what else? Global growth concerns.

--With assistance from Luke Kawa.

To contact the reporter on this story: Vildana Hajric in New York at vhajric1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at jherron8@bloomberg.net, Rita Nazareth, Randall Jensen

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