Work-From-Home Shift May Hammer Beauty Firms, Jefferies Warns

(Bloomberg) -- Women working from home have virtually eliminated makeup from their routines, a shift that could take a big bite out of beauty sales, Jefferies said.

While not all professions meet the criteria for remote work, an incremental one day per week spent working away from the office could impact annual make-up spending by 10% to 15%, Jefferies analyst Stephanie Wissink told investors in a Monday morning note. The impact could hit sales growth by 4% to 13% across her coverage.

About 90% of women who work remotely are wearing no makeup, according to recent surveys. With more permanent work-from-home situations likely on the horizon after the coronavirus pandemic slows, Wissink highlighted Elf Beauty Inc. as the most exposed company in her coverage, with Estee Lauder Cos. as the most insulated from the risk.

Wissink pointed out that the firm’s analysis does not take things like a recession into account and instead assumes economic conditions are stable. The firm is monitoring consumer confidence, employment, and stimulus actions globally to assess the spending environment.

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