Without Migration, U.S. Population in 48 States Would Shrink

(Bloomberg) -- White children were a minority among births in 13 U.S. states plus the District of Columbia, according to 2017 data released by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Without Migration, U.S. Population in 48 States Would Shrink

In Hawaii, less than 1 in 5 children were born to, non-Hispanic, single-race white mothers; while in New Mexico, California, Texas as well as Washington DC fewer than one third of child births were.

In New Mexico, the majority of children were born to Hispanic mothers with about two Hispanic children born for each white, non-Hispanic child. At the other extreme, in Maine, West Virginia and Vermont more than 40 white children were born for every Hispanic child.

Overall, 3,855,500 children were born in the U.S. in 2017.

Without Migration, U.S. Population in 48 States Would Shrink

California leads all states with 471,658 births, followed by Texas, New York and Florida.

South Dakota and Utah, were the only states with fertility rates above that of replacement level -- an equilibrium of flat population growth achieved by new birth only, without migration. In other words, the population of the remaining 48 states plus the District of Columbia would have shrunken without either domestic or international migration. South Dakota had the highest overall total fertility rate in the United States (2,227.5 births per 1,000 women).

In the majority of states, Hispanic births outpaced non-Hispanic black births. Overall, about one-third of a million more Hispanic children were born compared to black kids in 2017. More than half of the nation’s Hispanic baby births came from just three states: California, Texas and Florida.

However, births of black babies outpaced Hispanic ones by more than a 3 to 1 margin in Louisiana, Alabama, South Carolina, Ohio, the nation’s capitol as well as Mississippi, where ten black babies were born for every Hispanic one, the highest relative comparison.

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.