Will Ireland Buckle in the Face of Johnson? Don’t Count on It
Will Ireland Buckle in the Face of Boris? Don’t Count on It
(Bloomberg) -- As Boris Johnson cements his power in London, the mood in Dublin remains resolute.
Publicly and in private, the Irish government is showing little appetite for compromise after the U.K.’s new prime minister demanded the scrapping of the backstop, the proposed arrangement for keeping the Irish border free of checkpoints after Britain leaves the European Union.
While Johnson’s ascent is making Irish officials take the threat of a no-deal Brexit much more seriously, Parliament in London is seen as a firewall against leaving Europe without an agreement -- and the EU isn’t putting pressure on Ireland to give up the backstop for now. That constellation helps explains Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar’s self-assured tone.
“Confidence and enthusiasm is not a substitute for a European policy,” he said on Wednesday after Johnson’s first comments as prime minister.
Johnson’s hard line on the backstop may even have a silver lining for the Irish government. Had he sought tweaks, such as a five-year time limit, other EU countries might have seen an opening to put pressure on Ireland to accept a compromise in talks on an EU-U.K. deal.
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, branded Johnson’s demand “unacceptable,” suggesting there’s little prospect that the EU will abandon the backstop entirely.
The so-called backstop guarantee is a part of the Brexit deal that former Prime Minister Theresa May negotiated with the EU last year. While a return to customs and security checks between Ireland and Northern Ireland would be likely to harm the economy on both sides, Johnson and his pro-Brexit allies argue the backstop traps Britain indefinitely in the EU’s customs rules, negating the point of leaving the bloc.
The EU says it’s vital to avoid the return to checkpoints on the border that could undermine the peace on the island of Ireland.
As Johnson takes the reins in the negotiations, EU and Irish officials are willing to consider creative approaches to breaking the impasse. These could include:
- returning to a “Northern Irish only” backstop, meaning that EU rules would stay in effect only in Northern Ireland rather than the entire U.K.
- a stronger commitment to examine alternatives, such as technology, to avoid the backstop
- a commitment to close EU-U.K. ties, such as the U.K. remaining in the EU customs union and single market.
Yet all of these are problematic for the U.K. and some version of the backstop would remain the bedrock of the agreement.
While this might push Johnson toward a no-deal exit, Varadkar has said he’s confident the U.K. Parliament would block such an outcome. Members of Parliament opposed to leaving without an agreement say they have the votes in the Commons to stop it.
Nonetheless, that could change should Johnson hold an election quickly and win a majority that increases his room for maneuver.
“The government is well aware of the limited support for a hard Brexit in parliament,” Richard Falkenhall, a currency strategist SEB AB in Stockholm. ``It could well try to benefit from the popularity of the new PM and try to win a snap election to form a more Eurosceptic parliament.”
Irish Politic
While that may push a no-deal back up the agenda, Ireland could look to the EU for promised aid to cushion the economic impact of the U.K.’s crashing out. Moreover, the government says border infrastructure could be avoided even in case of a no-deal Brexit if it can convince the EU that checks elsewhere on the island would protect the single market, and the bloc’s leaders recognize Northern Ireland’s special circumstances.
Varadkar has still more reasons to stand firm. His minority government is propped up by the biggest opposition party, Fianna Fail, and there’s no guarantee his administration would survive a compromise on the backstop.
For now, Varadkar is content to bounce the ball back to Johnson.
“Without the backstop there is no withdrawal agreement,” he said. “I hope the new U.K. prime minster hasn’t chosen no-deal, but that will be up to them.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Dara Doyle in Dublin at ddoyle1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Chad Thomas at cthomas16@bloomberg.net, Tony Czuczka
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