Virus Transmission Rate in England May Have Risen Last Week

(Bloomberg) --

The estimated coronavirus transmission rate may have risen in England over the past week, according to estimates released by government scientists on Friday, suggesting efforts to ease the U.K. economic lockdown could have to be slowed.

The so-called ‘R’ number, representing the number of new people each coronavirus case infects, is likely to be between 0.8 and 1. That compares with an estimate of 0.7 to 1 a week ago. The scientists also released for the first time their regional assessments of the R number, suggesting it may be greater than 1 in southwest England.

Ministers have repeatedly said they aim to keep the transmission rate below 1, though increasingly the focus is switching toward squashing localized outbreaks. However the transmission rate isn’t the only important number. The Office for National Statistics said earlier on Friday that it estimated the number of infected people was 33,000 between May 25 and June 7, down from 53,000 the previous week.

ONS Survey Shows 1 in 1,700 Infected With Covid-19 in England

The statistics come as the government is trying to ease lockdown restrictions to get the economy moving again. From Saturday, people from two households may form a social bubble allowing them to mix and enter each other’s homes -- so long as one of the households has only one adult. And on Monday, non-essential shops, as well as zoos and safari parks are set to open.

Following is a table of the regional estimates of the R Number across England:

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.