U.S. Undercounting Covid Cases; Trump Scraps Florida Convention
Virus Slows in Some States But Testing Czar Warns of Undercount
(Bloomberg) -- Testing deficiencies are clouding the picture of the U.S. coronavirus pandemic, as case counts in some hot spots wane but health officials warn that new infections may be significantly undercounted.
The U.S. outbreak remains on a troubling trajectory, surpassing the grim milestone of 4 million infections Thursday as deaths continue to hit records in some states. But new cases in Florida and Arizona showed signs of slowing after a surge that jarred residents, businesses and policy makers.
President Donald Trump said he’s canceling the Jacksonville, Florida, portion of the Republican National Convention next month, citing safety as a concern.
“To have a big convention, it’s not the right time,” he said at a news conference Thursday. “For me, I have to protect the American people.”
Delegates will still meet in North Carolina for the nomination, Trump said. He’ll hold televised rallies that week and make a convention speech as well, “in a different form.”
Administration officials acknowledged the difficulties in assessing the state of the outbreak. Health and Human Services Assistant Secretary Brett Giroir, the country’s testing czar, told Fox News on Thursday that while the nation is officially logging about 67,000 new cases a day, the reality is more likely about 200,000.
That’s twice the level of 100,000 that Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert, warned senators earlier this month that the country could reach.
According to an analysis by the nonprofit Kaiser Family Foundation, the majority of states qualify as hot spots -- about 36, accounting for more than 70% of the country’s population. The assessment is based on trends in case increases, positivity rates and new daily cases per million population.
The Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention forecast on Thursday that U.S. deaths from the virus could reach 175,000 by Aug. 15. The current toll stands at about 144,000, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Still, there’s some cause for cautious optimism that outbreaks in some states may be stabilizing. Arizona reported a slowing rate of increase of new cases on Thursday, and the rate of positive test results dropped to 26.7% from 30.5% on Wednesday. But the outbreak is still causing pain and suffering, with Florida posting record deaths on Thursday. Trends evening out are no guarantee of a rosy path ahead as the U.S. grapples with inadequate public-health infrastructure that has hamstrung efforts to measure and mitigate the virus’s spread.
Briefings Return
Trump resumed his coronavirus briefings solo on Tuesday with a markedly different tone from earlier, when he downplayed the severity of the situation, berated governors and touted unproven treatments, including hydroxychloroquine and bleach.
“It will probably, unfortunately, get worse before it gets better,” Trump said Tuesday.
It’s a perspective shared by Manisha Juthani, an infectious disease specialist at Yale School of Medicine.
“Some areas are not hit very hard, while some are approaching catastrophic levels,” Juthani said of hot-spot states like California, Texas and Florida.
As Giroir indicated, however, it’s hard to precisely assess the spread of the virus relying purely on the data. A surge in demand for testing has led to backlogs that have left people in limbo, wondering if they’ve caught Covid-19.
Quest Diagnostics Inc. Chief Executive Officer Steve Rusckowski said on Thursday that demand for the screenings has “soared” in recent weeks. However, that’s led to lengthy turnaround times, driving down the effectiveness of testing in curbing the spread. Even for high-priority patients, results now take about two days. The lab giant has done about 20% of the country’s tests. It’s up to 130,000 diagnostic screenings a day and expects to reach 150,000 in the coming weeks, he said.
Over the weekend, Quest received the first Food and Drug Administration clearance for “pooled” testing, which allows for the processing of multiple patient samples at a time. While that will significantly expand the number of people tested, it’s most useful in areas with low virus prevalence, ideally “lower than 2%,” Rusckowski said. But nationwide, about 10% of tests come back positive, according to a CDC dashboard updated on Thursday.
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Other health executives also sounded cautious notes regarding testing.
Roche Holding Ag Chief Executive Officer Severin Schwan said in an interview with Bloomberg TV Thursday that even though the Swiss health-care giant has quadrupled its capacity to turn out various types of tests, there aren’t enough to go around and the world should be careful in how it uses the existing supply.
Gustavo Ferrer is a pulmonologist and critical care physician who runs an intensive care unit in the Miami area that’s at 120% capacity now due to the surge in Covid-19 in the region. While he said Thursday that he’s glad the president has taken a more serious tone about the virus, Americans should understand they’re entering a new normal.
“Normality is going to be abnormal for awhile,” Ferrer said.
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.