UBS Expects Swiss Rate Cut in Early 2020 as Global Economy Sours

(Bloomberg) --

The Swiss National Bank will cut interest rates early next year, pushed into action by a further round of easing by other central banks, according to UBS Group AG.

It expects both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve to “react to recession risks” with more rate cuts. “That should force the SNB to cut rates in the spring, which is why there shouldn’t be a stronger appreciation of the franc in the next twelve months,” UBS economist Alessandro Bee wrote in a note to clients.

Along with Denmark, Switzerland has the lowest policy benchmark of any central bank. Although euro-area officials cut rates in September, that package disappointed markets and the SNB didn’t follow suit with a cut of its own.

However, the Swiss institution increased the amount banks can exempt from its deposit charge of 75 basis points, shielding banks from side effects and paving the way for a rate reduction.

The KOF Swiss Economic Institute expects the SNB to cut rates even sooner, and forecasts a reduction by the end of this year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Catherine Bosley in Zurich at cbosley1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Fergal O'Brien at fobrien@bloomberg.net

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