U.S. Stall Speed, German Forecasts Cut, Airbus Ruling: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) --

Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• The U.S. economy’s growth rate is losing speed, prompting questions over how slow it can go and still avoid crashing into a recession
  • Bloomberg Economics’ new U.S. recession probability indicator shows the chance of a downturn within the next 12 months is about 25%
• EU officials appear to have lost hope of dodging additional punitive U.S. tariffs, as the bloc’s calls for a negotiated settlement over aircraft subsidies have gone unanswered by President Donald Trump’s administration. The World Trade Organization’s arbitration decision on the Airbus dispute is due Wednesday
• Germany’s five leading research institutes slashed their forecasts for economic growth, as manufacturers in Europe’s biggest economy struggle with waning global demand and lingering trade disputes
  • Meanwhile, here’s a look at how German fiscal stimulus is already creeping in, whatever Chancellor Angela Merkel might say
• Swiss inflation slowed to the weakest since 2016 and is now barely above zero, reflecting the franc’s rally against the euro.
• The European Central Bank began its official transition to a new benchmark short-term interest rate Wednesday, as global regulators move away from tainted Libor gauges
• The Reserve Bank of Australia probably would opt for quantitative easing over negative rates if more monetary policy easing is needed, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says
• Months of protests in Hong Kong are taking an increasing toll on the city’s economy, with retail sales declining by a record amount in August

To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss

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