U.S. Recession Tracker, China's Price, Germany Warning: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) --

Good morning America. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• While recession chatter endures amid a persistent trade war with China and a further retrenchment in corporate investment, robust signals from other aspects of the U.S. economy — like the labor market⁠ — have eased concerns of an imminent downturn
  • That comes amid other signs the worst may be over for the world economy’s deepest slowdown in a decade
• China is setting its price for signing an interim trade deal with the United States: drop the tariffs. The question is whether President Donald Trump will pay it
• Only 22% of Canadians showed strong confidence in the prime minister’s ability to create conditions for economic prosperity, according to a poll by Nanos Research Group for Bloomberg News
• Chinese stocks would be off limits to a U.S. government retirement fund under a bipartisan Senate bill to be introduced Wednesday, aimed at concerns that the investments would undermine national security and contribute to China’s economic and corporate growth
• Germany is walking a tight line as an industrial recession threatens to drag down the broader economy, one of the leading economic experts advising Chancellor Angela Merkel‘s government warned
  • Still, a rebound in the nation’s factory orders is adding to signs that the euro-area economy has passed the worst of its recent troubles
• After years of measuring unfavorably against Europe’s economic powerhouse Germany, France may finally have something to crow about. The euro area’s second-largest economy is outpacing its neighbor and the region as a whole
• For many emerging markets, 2020 is looking slightly better than 2019. That’s not guaranteed though. In a risk-off scenario, our scorecard suggests Argentina and Turkey are most vulnerable to disruption, write Scott Johnson and Tom Orlik
• Finally, here how Turkey’s debt hangover is changing spending habits at Halit Direkci’s $10 million poultry business.

To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Brian Swint

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