U.S. Payrolls, Central Banks’ Path Out, BOE Jobs Puzzle: Eco Day
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Welcome to Friday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:
- This morning’s labor market report is expected to show the U.S. added 450,000 jobs in October, according to the median estimate of a Bloomberg survey of economists
- There will be particular attention paid to wage growth as bond investors look for second-round inflation effects from higher wage demands
- A high headline number, showing the labor market getting closer to pre-pandemic levels, may also bring forward the timetable for a rate hike at the Federal Reserve
- The unemployment rate is expected to tick lower to 4.7% and the participation rate to rise slightly to 61.7%, when the data is released at 8:30 a.m.
- Bloomberg Economics sees the pace of U.S. job growth to likely be an improvement from the last two months of disappointment
- The House is set to vote today on President Joe Biden’s $1.75 trillion economic package and the separate infrastructure bill
- Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s push yesterday to settle lingering differences seems to have been successful, with last-minute changes to state and local income tax deductions and a provision on Medicare
- The infrastructure bill, already passed by the Senate, will go straight to Biden’s desk after today’s vote/ The bill on the larger package will need Senators’ approval
- Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the U.K. labor market will provide the missing evidence necessary to determine the timing of an increase in interest rates and that officials won’t “bottle” on making moves when they must
- That came hours after a report showed demand for staff in the U.K., driven by a lack of applicants for jobs, led to a record pay increase for workers starting new jobs in October
- Global central bankers are turning toward tighter monetary policy, yet still indicating they will take longer and follow different paths
- The Reserve Bank of Australia sounded an optimistic note on the economy, while maintaining that faster wages growth and inflation will take some time
- Finally, check out this week’s Stephanomics podcast: Should central banks try to save the world? Listen here
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