U.S.-Mexico Trade Talks, Trump’s Big Stick, ECB Meeting: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Go inside the global economy with Stephanie Flanders in her new podcast, Stephanomics. Subscribe via Pocket Cast or iTunes.

Welcome to Thursday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• U.S. and Mexican negotiators are set to resume talks Thursday with time running short to avert President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs next week
  • Tariffs of 25% on China and Mexico, plus retaliation in both cases, would lower U.S. GDP by 0.8% in 2021, writes Bloomberg Economics’s Dan Hanson
  • Ben Holland explains how Trump has become quite comfortable deploying the U.S. economy both as lure and as threat
  • Meanwhile, the U.S. economy celebrates 10 years of growth, but no one’s partying, says Peter Coy
• Friday’s U.S. jobs report will be especially scrutinized by economists, investors and Federal Reserve policy makers watching for signs of cracks in the labor market as trade tensions weigh on the economy and spur bets interest-rate cuts are coming
• The Fed wound up its two-day framework conference on Wednesday with little consensus on what can be done to better prepare for the next big recession. Here are the main takeaways
  • Here’s what the Fed heard when it listened to Americans about inflation
• The European Central Bank will decide on Thursday whether the euro zone needs more stimulus as its global peers move to shore up a recession-threatened global economy
• India’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for a third time this year and paved the way for more policy easing to support an economy growing at the slowest pace since 2014

To contact the reporter on this story: Zoe Schneeweiss in London at zschneeweiss@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Fergal O'Brien at fobrien@bloomberg.net, Brian Swint

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.