U.S. Democratic Sweep Would Benefit Asia Stocks, UBS Wealth Says

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A U.S. Democratic victory at the ballot box come November could help Asia’s stock markets, according to UBS Global Wealth Management.

A Democratic administration with an emphasis on infrastructure and a less combative trade posture would be positive for Asia’s information technology companies, 5G-related firms and electric vehicle tech supply chains, strategists led by Mark Haefele wrote in a note. Japanese automakers could also benefit in the long term, as they have a head-start in environmental-related fields, an area that would gain from Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s “green” agenda, they said.

“We think a Democratic sweep would prove to be an advantageous outcome for Asia’s equity markets,” the strategists said. “It could lead to higher U.S. corporate income taxes and more regulatory oversight, but we think greater government spending would be supportive of the region’s export-oriented economies.”

U.S. Democratic Sweep Would Benefit Asia Stocks, UBS Wealth Says

In contrast, a second term for President Donald Trump may result in a harsher U.S. stance against China, stalling progress in trade negotiations and jeopardizing the Phase One agreement, the strategists wrote. The U.S. may also delist more Chinese shares, boosting Hong Kong’s status as a financial center.

UBS Global Wealth pointed out that equity volatility tends to rise going into U.S. elections before the certainty of the result pushes shares higher. However, volatility could climb after election day if the contest is challenged, it said.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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