U.S. Covid Decline Nears Point at Which Other Surges Reignited

The downward trend in U.S. Covid-19 cases is about two months old, the juncture at which previous recoveries stalled and resurgences began.

The seven-day average of new cases has been declining for 59 days since the Jan. 11 peak, meaning only the April-to-June drop was longer, at 67 days from peak to the beginning of the subsequent surge. The July-to-September easing lasted 55 days.

U.S. Covid Decline Nears Point at Which Other Surges Reignited

It’s unclear whether another wave is imminent, especially with vaccines flowing, 10% of the country fully vaccinated and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimating that some 83 million Americans had already been infected as of mid-January.

Several risks remain on the horizon, however. Data from testing company Helix suggest the fast-spreading B.1.1.7 variant is now dominant in states including Florida and Texas. Meanwhile, Texas and Mississippi announced they were dropping mask mandates last week, and mobility data from Google show Americans are slowly returning to a semblance of regular activity.

Yet for now, the U.S. appears to be holding the line, even in those states where B.1.1.7 has a major foothold.

  • The U.S. posted 58,770 new Covid-19 cases on Wednesday, bringing the seven-day average down to 56,105, the lowest since Oct. 18, according to Johns Hopkins.
  • More than 529,000 people have died in the U.S.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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