U.S. Covid-19 Recovery Hits a Bump as Winter Draws Near

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S.’s two-month run of Covid-19 improvements may be coming to an end, in what’s become a seasonal cycle of viral ebb and flow.

That’s not to say that conditions will imminently start deteriorating, but they’ve stopped getting better, much as they did after previous recoveries. Similar to the summer surge of 2020, the 2021 Delta wave peaked in early September, giving way to two straight months of falling cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

Now, the recovery is running out of positive momentum some 60 days in -- a repeat of past patterns.
 

Many public health experts now believe the U.S. will be living with endemic Covid-19 for the foreseeable future, and the latest numbers don’t necessarily mean the U.S. is entering a uniquely dangerous new phase. 

Some states, particularly in the Northeast, are hoping that very strong vaccination rates will keep the virus at bay. But there are still questions about how immunity wanes over time. So far, the data have been very encouraging for the inoculated population and show strong protection against getting sick enough to be hospitalized, or dying.

But data from U.S. hospitals suggest that improvements in viral transmission may well be fading, at least in some parts of the country. New hospital admissions with confirmed Covid-19 are rising in 13 states, up from 11 a week earlier, according to Department of Health and Human Services data. The increase in admissions appears to be a mix of late brushfires from the earlier Delta wave and new flare-ups. 

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