U.K. 10-Year Inflation Expectations Climb to Highest Since 2008

Market-based inflation expectations in the U.K. rose to the highest level in over a decade.

The so-called 10-year breakeven rate climbed 3 basis points to 3.48%, the highest reading since 2008. The gauge, which is derived from the difference between conventional gilts yields and those linked to inflation, has risen almost 50 basis points point so far this year.

The repricing comes before the Bank of England meets to set policy on Thursday. It follows record demand at a 10-year inflation-linked government bond last week, a sign that investors are scrambling to hedge their portfolio against the prospect of rising consumer prices.

U.K. 10-Year Inflation Expectations Climb to Highest Since 2008

“Sentiment is driving breakeven rates higher,” said Bob Stoutjesdijk, a Rotterdam-based fund manager at Robeco Institutional Asset Management, adding that breakeven rates, while “overstrecthed on a fundamental level”, can rally further as the economy reopens.

Financial markets the world over have been signalling that inflation may mount a comeback after months of ultra-loose monetary policy. The U.K. has been at the forefront of the resulting global bond selloff, fueled by the pace of the British vaccine roll-out and a recent hawkish tilt by the Bank of England.

While the U.K.’s rate of consumer inflation has held below the BOE’s 2% annual target for 18 months, economists expect it to accelerate to just below that goal this year. That’s raising the possibility that central-bank officials could opt to tighten their monetary stance.

The BOE’s chief economist Andy Haldane said last month he sees a risk of U.K. inflation accelerating more than expected, warning fellow central bankers against being too relaxed about taming the rise in consumer prices.

Britain has the highest breakeven rate among Group of Seven nations, with the comparable U.S. rate more than a percentage point lower at around 2.25%.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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