Trump's Speech, ECB in No Hurry on Loans, U.K. Outlook: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

  • President Donald Trump inflated his economic achievements during his State of the Union address, touting numbers that don’t match up with official data and highlighting some accomplishments that left out key context.
    • The president also said a trade deal with China will have to address not only what he called the chronic U.S. trade deficit but also changes in Chinese policies to protect American workers and businesses.
  • The Labor Department will publish new data on U.S. productivity today, though the report will lack the main measure because of the government shutdown.
  • European Central Bank officials see no urgent need to offer new long-term loans to banks and aren’t certain to do so at their next policy meeting in March, say people familiar with the matter.
    • Meanwhile, a report Wednesday showed German factory orders unexpectedly dropped for a second month in December, adding to signs that Europe’s largest economy is facing a more protracted loss in momentum.
  • Mark Carney is due to leave his post as Bank of England governor at the end of January 2020 and speculation is mounting about who will take over. Here’s a look at the latest poll.
    • The next governor may have a difficult time. U.K. growth is set to be sluggish for the next few years even if a Brexit deal is secured, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  • Through all the noise about market volatility, it’s labor market conditions and their impact on inflation that remain at the core of concerns for monetary policy makers, writes Tom Orlik.
  • When Brazil’s central bank meets on Wednesday, its outgoing President Ilan Goldfajn will leave the door open for his successor to deliver an unprecedented borrowing cost cut at his first policy meeting.
    • Policy makers in Thailand and Iceland kept rates unchanged and Poland also is forecast to hold.
  • Finally, here’s a look at the 20 years of zero interest rates in Japan.

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