Trump’s Fed Attacks Do Shape Markets, Bank of Canada Study Finds
Trump’s Fed Attacks Do Shape Markets, Bank of Canada Study Finds
(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump’s demands for the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy do impact financial markets, according to new research published by the Bank of Canada.
In the study released this month, Antoine Camous of the University of Mannheim and Dmitry Matveev of Canada’s central bank looked at Fed funds futures, a guide to where investors are betting monetary policy is headed, on the days that Trump tweeted about Chairman Jerome Powell and the Fed’s decisions.
“By relating price movements of these contracts with President Trump’s tweets on monetary policy, we explore how markets have perceived presidential attempts to influence monetary policy decisions,” the study said. “Overall, our results indicate markets expected the Federal Reserve to adjust monetary policy in the direction suggested by President Trump.”
The study found expectations were revised between 0.3 and 2.3 basis points on the days with relevant tweets. The Bank of Canada says research reports it publishes may differ from its official view and that it’s not responsible for the findings of such studies.
The debate over Trump’s comments has been a hot one this year as the president repeatedly used Twitter to criticize the Fed for keeping interest rates too high and then not cutting them enough. The U.S. central bank did lower its benchmark three times this year, but officials argued it was doing so for economic reasons rather than because of presidential pressure.
In a report earlier this year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said there is “weak evidence” to suggest markets are moved by the Tweets.
By contrast, a study from Duke University and London Business School found Trump’s use of social media to criticize the Fed had a “statistically significant and negative effect” on markets.
To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Kennedy in London at skennedy4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Stephanie Flanders at flanders@bloomberg.net, Craig Stirling, Jana Randow
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