Trump Is Wrong: Israel Doesn’t Need MBS

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- On Thanksgiving Day, President Donald Trump held a video press conference from his resort in Florida. Unsurprisingly, he was asked why he continues to stand up for Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, even though the CIA believes he personally ordered the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.

Trump responded with his usual America First talking points: Saudi Arabia spends billions of dollars on American military equipment and technological products, creating “hundreds of thousands of jobs” for Americans; the Saudis have, at the president’s request, held down the price of oil, thus averting economic disaster and keeping cars on the road across the U.S. Trump also invoked Saudi Arabia as a necessary American ally, and a partner in the effort to contain Iranian aggression.

Then he added a new, unexpected rationale for his defense of the Prince Mohammed, who is widely known as MBS: “If you look at Israel, Israel would be in big trouble without Saudi Arabia.”

The claim was met with skepticism in Jerusalem. Israel does not regard Saudi Arabia as an essential partner in its national security. The kingdom has no significant role to play in Israel’s confrontation with its most immediate threats: Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. And Israeli military planning doesn’t envisage, much less require, Saudi assistance in the event of a flare-up with Iran.

Yes, the two countries share the goal of defeating, or at least containing, Iranian expansion. But their relationship—which is still officially on the down-low—depends on interests, not personalities. It predates MBS, and it will last as long as the two countries have common goals.

This is not to say that Israel doesn’t appreciate its informal relationship with Saudi Arabia, or MBS’s role in fostering it. Doors are being opened to Israel across the Arabian Peninsula. This month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu broke new ground by traveling to Oman, and two Israeli government ministers visited Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Bahrain may be next on Netanyahu’s travel plan. These visits would not be possible without the blessing of Saudi Arabia—specifically, of King Salman bin Abdulaziz and his favorite son.

Netanyahu regards stability in the Saudi leadership as good for his country. That’s why, after declaring the murder of Jamal Kashoggi as “horrendous,” he advised Trump to stand by the crown prince. He argued that the U.S. can’t engineer a change in the palace in Riyadh. Eisenhower did that in Iran, in 1953, and the U.S. is still suffering the aftershocks.

The Saudi royal court is not transparent, but there’s little sign that the crown prince is at risk of being dethroned. Former MBS rival Turki al-Faisal, ex-head of Saudi intelligence, told AP that King Salman and MBS enjoy “extraordinary support” at home. A more reliable indicator is MBS’s trip this week to the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, and Tunisia. Endangered autocrats do not customarily leave home.

MBS has arrived in Buenos Aries where he will attend the G-20 summit. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, his chief tormentor in the Khashoggi murder, will be there too, and can be counted on to raise the matter again. Human Rights Watch has asked Argentine public prosecutors to investigate the prince’s role in war crimes in Yemen, as well as in the Khashoggi murder.

Although Trump has no formal meeting planned with MBS, he may again be forced to defend the prince. He will deploy his America First arguments, but they will not convince the president’s many detractors. They don’t even work on Republican leaders like Lindsay Graham, who want MBS called to moral account by Congress.

‘Israel’ is a magic name with the Evangelical Republican base. That may well be why Trump tossed it into his rationale salad on Thanksgiving. This may also explain why this week, he cited Israel’s security as a reason for keeping U.S. troops in the Middle East. He need fear be no immediate push back from Israel. Netanyahu has no reason to embarrass Trump, enrage MBS, or get further drawn into the drama of the Kashoggi murder. But Israel’s leader knows full well that his country will not be “in big trouble” if Trump doesn’t stand by MBS.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Bobby Ghosh at aghosh73@bloomberg.net

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Zev Chafets is a journalist and author of 14 books. He was a senior aide to Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and the founding managing editor of the Jerusalem Report Magazine.

©2018 Bloomberg L.P.