Bets on July Fed Rate Cut Gain Momentum After U.S. Jobs Report
Traders' Conviction on Fed Rate Cuts Firms After U.S. Jobs Data
(Bloomberg) -- Bond traders’ conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates within months in response to a weakening growth outlook and escalating trade tensions firmed after a batch of weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data.
Fed funds futures show a quarter-point cut almost fully priced in for July, and indicate about 70 basis points of easing by the end of 2019. The two-year Treasury yield fell as much as 11 basis points to 1.77%, close to the 2019 low reached Wednesday, and it was on course for its fifth weekly decline. The last time that happened was back in July 2016, when the U.S. central bank’s target range was 2 percentage points lower than right now.
Friday’s data showed U.S. employers in May added the fewest workers in three months as wage gains cooled, suggesting broader economic weakness. The figures are likely boost to calls for a Fed interest-rate cut as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies weigh on the economy.
The report is “adding fuel to the fire for a rate cut in the near term,” Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies LLC, said Friday.
The 10-year Treasury rate sank to 2.05%, its lowest since 2017, while the U.S. yield curve steepened as shorter maturities outperformed. The Bloomberg dollar index fell as much as 0.3%.
The latest jobs report also increases the focus on the so-called dot plot charting policy makers’ interest-rate projections that is due to be updated at the Fed’s June 18-19 meeting, according to Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale SA.
“If there is a meaningful slowdown, the Fed can come in and cut rates by 50 basis points,” she said in a Bloomberg Television interview Friday. “There’s always the risk that if they wait, they’re going to have to do more.”
Some are speculating that a cut could come as soon as June.
“The trade war has damaged sentiment and will likely continue to drive the recent deceleration in the economy,” Ed Moya, chief market strategist at Oanda, wrote in a note Friday. If there isn’t meaningful progress on trade by the Fed’s June gathering, “the Fed has ammunition to pull the trigger on a 25 basis rate point cut,” he wrote.
--With assistance from Benjamin Purvis, Alix Steel and David Westin.
To contact the reporters on this story: Susanne Barton in New York at swalker33@bloomberg.net;Katherine Greifeld in New York at kgreifeld@bloomberg.net;Liz Capo McCormick in New York at emccormick7@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Benjamin Purvis at bpurvis@bloomberg.net, Mark Tannenbaum
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