Trade Deal Signed, U.S. Education Gap, BOE Caution: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• The U.S. and China signed the first phase of a broader trade pact amid persistent questions over whether President Donald Trump’s efforts to rewrite the economic relationship with Beijing will ever go further.
  • Here’s a look at the winners and losers of the trade war so far
  • Still, doubts persist whether the U.S. trade strategy will bear fruit in next phase of negotiations with China
• China’s overall credit growth held up in December and a gauge of borrowing costs fell, signaling that policy makers are beginning to see some progress in channeling credit to the economy
• Pound traders piling into bets on an interest-rate cut this month are getting a warning from strategists preaching the virtue of patience
  • The cost of the U.K.’s productivity crisis is “already multiples of even the worst-case Brexit scenario,” according to Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane
  • The U.K. housing market perked up in December as Boris Johnson’s commanding election win helped push up sales and expectations for price gains
• If European Central Bank officials use their review of monetary policy this year as a chance to connect with ordinary people, they need to be ready for some plain truths
• The Swiss National Bank retains the ability to wage currency market interventions if necessary, according to one of its officials
• The Fed’s low interest rates, the perception that there is a high bar to future rate increases and expansion of its balance sheet are helping to lift asset prices, Dallas Fed chief Robert Kaplan said
• Don’t miss this week’s episode of the Stephanomics podcast: How one state is trying to close America’s huge education cap
• Finally, here’s a look at how this year’s forum in Davos will seek to give concrete meaning to “stakeholder capitalism”—a blueprint for a more inclusive and sustainable model of increasing earnings

To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Brian Swint

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