Top Energy Agency Says COP26 Pledges Signal 1.8°C of Warming

(Bloomberg) -- Pollution-cutting pledges made at crunch climate change talks in Glasgow would put the world on track for 1.8 degrees Celsius of global warming, according to the International Energy Agency.

Among the dozens of new promises made by countries at COP26 this week, India announced a target for net zero emissions by 2070, while nearly 100 nations signed a joint U.S.-European Union pledge on Tuesday to collectively reduce global methane emissions 30% below 2020 levels by 2030. 

Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, said they had totted up the figures, and concluded the world is now on track for 1.8°C warming. That projection may encourage COP26 President Alok Sharma who has said he wants to use the fortnight of talks to keep alive the chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C compared with pre-industrial levels. 

Before COP26 began, the United Nations published official analysis which showed country pledges would still put the world on track for 2.7°C warming. That data only included pledges for 2030 that have been formally submitted as so-called Nationally Determined Contributions.

The methane pledges at the summit would only be counted by the UN if they were formally included as NDC submissions. Signatories were also told the 30% burden wouldn’t fall on them individually but rather it was a collective goal. India’s 2070 goal wouldn’t be included as it hasn’t yet formally submitted that target through the NDC process. The NDC registry also only counts pledges for 2030, rather than long-term goals.

Researchers at the University of Melbourne also published analysis on Wednesday that found if all NDC and long-term pledges are fulfilled and adequately supported, the best-estimate of peak warming this century is 1.9°C.

“This is still a far stretch from halting warming around 1.5°C, but substantially improved over projections from just a few weeks ago,” it said.

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