The Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index Just Went Negative for the First Time Since Last June

Yesterday I wrote that the Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index was on the verge of going negative for the first time since last June.

Well, it just happened. Here’s the chart:

The Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index Just Went Negative for the First Time Since Last June

In and of itself, it’s not that big of a deal. A surprise index simply measures the degree to which the economic data is either beating or missing economists’ forecasts, with a negative reading occurring when recent reports have missed in aggregate. It’s not an absolute measure of growth. But what it does mean is that after nearly a year of economists consistently underestimating the strength and durability of the economy recovery, they’ve now, finally, caught up to reality.

The latest data point we got on Thursday was the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's manufacturing survey, which missed expectations slightly and showed inflation gauges shooting up to their highest levels since the 1980s.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

BQ Install

Bloomberg Quint

Add BloombergQuint App to Home screen.