Switzerland’s Worst-Case Scenario Is 10% Output Drop This Year

(Bloomberg) --

Switzerland’s economy could suffer its worst contraction since at least 1980 under a worst-case scenario laid out by the government on Wednesday.

The projection is one of two officials in Bern presented, after incoming data proved worse than expected. In a less severe scenario that includes a speedy recovery after containment measures to control the coronavirus outbreak get loosened in May, gross domestic product would shrink 7.1% this year.

Switzerland’s Worst-Case Scenario Is 10% Output Drop This Year

“The goal of the discussion is that the government can get an idea of how the course of the economy is seen progressing,” said Eric Scheidegger, head of the economic-policy directorate at the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs. Further data will be published at the end of April, he said.

Data in the countries immediately neighboring Switzerland paint a similarly bleak picture. The French economy shrank the most since World War II at the start of this year, while output in Germany will contract this quarter at more than twice the pace recorded at the height of the financial crisis.

At the same press conference, the Swiss government said it would gradually relax measures in April. That could mean businesses could be up and running more quickly than under the government’s negative scenario.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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