Surprising U.S. Recovery, Stimulus Talks, Strong China: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to Monday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the week:

• The U.S. economic recovery’s strength has consistently surprised over the past several months, thanks in part to steadfast consumer finances that were underpinned by robust government aid and ultra-low interest rates

  • The three months of squabbling over a new round of virus relief moved no closer to a resolution over the weekend, all but extinguishing the prospects of a stimulus bill being written, voted on, and signed into law by President Donald Trump before the election
  • A second wave of Covid-19 is threatening the economic recovery and fiscal stimulus remains unlikely before the U.S. election. The outcome of the election is likely to be the decisive factor shaping the next stimulus package -- a critical determinate of the growth outlook, according to Bloomberg Economics
• If China’s economy -- which is already recovering swiftly from the coronavirus shock -- can stick to the growth trajectory of recent years, it’ll surpass the U.S. within the next decade
• Investors banking on a coronavirus vaccine to save the world economy next year need to temper their ambitions as scientists warn of a long, difficult road ahead
• Three Group of Seven interest-rate decisions this week, along with data accounting for 40% of global gross domestic product, will provide a temperature check for the world economy

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