Social Distancing Index Shows Americans Are Starting to Mingle
Social Distancing Index Shows Americans Are Starting to Mingle
(Bloomberg) -- Americans hunkered down at home for more than two months and businesses closed in order to help slow the spread of Covid-19. A new real-time gauge of social distancing, however, shows the nation’s economy is beginning to stir to life once again.
After spiking in mid-March, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ Social Distancing Index, which measures the extent of physical distancing and its relationship to economic activity, has started to decline as states begin lifting restrictions on business and consumer interactions.
The index uses geolocation data, provided by SafeGraph, that capture the amount of time that mobile devices are at home or at other locations, and how far they travel. A higher SDI indicates more social distancing.
As expected, areas with the biggest populations are the furthest away from a return to normalcy, even as infections ease nationally. Because no single indicator in the SafeGraph dataset captures all aspects of social distancing, the Dallas Fed’s index utilizes seven different variables. Each of these are measured daily at the county level relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February.
The Variables
- Fraction of devices leaving home in a day
- Fraction of devices away from home for three to six hours at a fixed location
- Fraction of devices away from home longer than six hours at a fixed location
- An adjusted average of daytime hours spent at home
- Fraction of devices taking trips longer than 10 miles
- Fraction of devices taking trips less than 1.2 miles
- Average time spent at locations far from home
The index started to increase beyond its normal range in the second week of March and rose sharply in the week ended March 21. By the end of the month and through the second week of April, it plateaued. Through early May, the gauge declined as more Americans ventured away from home and took longer trips.
The gauge may also help measure the impact on municipal and state finances. The Dallas Fed found that at the April peak of social distancing, localities engaging in 10% more social distancing relative to the national average saw an additional 0.6% of the population claiming unemployment insurance and an additional 2.6% increase in small business closures.
The Fed researchers expect social distancing behavior to decline further in the coming weeks and months as government restrictions ease.
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