Sanders Leads in N.H., Iowa While Biden Still Ahead Nationally

(Bloomberg) -- New polls showed the unsettled state of the Democratic primary days before the first voters weigh in at the Iowa caucuses, with front-runner status still unclear.

Vice President Joe Biden holds a sizable lead nationally, but many polls show Democrats in the early-voting states favor Bernie Sanders, which could spark the Vermont senator’s campaign for the contests ahead.

Winning in the early states is critical to generate momentum to continue on through Super Tuesday on March 3, when populous states including California and Texas hold their primaries. Biden, in particular, has run on the notion of electability -- losing early on could dampen that argument. National polls aren’t particularly predictive of the eventual nominee at this point.

A poll by Emerson University of the first caucus state found Sanders leading with 30%, followed by Biden at 21% and Amy Klobuchar at 13%. The poll marks the first time this cycle Klobuchar placed in the top three. Elizabeth Warren was at 11% and Pete Buttigieg 10%. That poll has a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.

But Suffolk University and USA Today’s poll of Iowa painted a different picture. Biden led with 25%, followed by Sanders with 19%, Buttigieg with 18%, Warren 13% and Klobuchar 6%. That poll had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

That poll found that 13% of Iowans were undecided and a whopping 45% say they could still change their minds. In the Emerson Poll, 38% of Iowans said they could change their minds.

Sanders led in New Hampshire polls from CNN/University of New Hampshire and NBC News/Marist, as well as one for Iowa by the New York Times/Siena College released over the weekend.

Biden maintained the lead in national polls from the Washington Post/ABC News and Fox News. The state of the race remains tight eight days before the first delegates will be assigned and the primary season officially kicks off after months of campaigning.

Granite State

The CNN poll found Sanders with a lead in the first primary state with 25%. Behind him were Biden at 16%, Buttigieg at 15%, and Warren with 12%.

Sanders was also ahead in the NBC News poll of New Hampshire voters, where support was widely dispersed. Following Sanders at 22% was Buttigieg with 17%, Biden with 15%, Warren with 13%, and Klobuchar at 10%.

The CNN poll had a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points and NBC poll of 3.8 percentage points.

In Iowa, where voters will caucus on Feb. 3, Sanders was leading, according to the New York Times/Siena College survey, with 25% support. Buttigieg followed with 18%, Biden at 17%, and Warren at 15%. The poll’s margin of error is 4.8 percentage points.

Last Minute

Biden maintains a 6.4-point lead in the RealClearPolitics national average. The Washington Post/ABC nationwide poll released on Sunday found Biden with a double-digit lead over the rest of the field with 34%. Sanders followed with 22% and Warren with 14%; no other candidate had over 10%. The poll had a margin of error of 3.5 points.

Fox News also released a national poll on Sunday that found Biden leading with 26%; it had a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Sanders followed with 23%, Warren 14% and Michael Bloomberg with 10%. Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News.

Despite his lead in the early states, Sanders is far from a certain win there. Iowans are known for deciding who to support at the last minute, even after candidates have criss-crossed the states for months and in some cases years.

Impeachment Impact

A CBS poll released on Sunday showed little more than a third of those expressing a candidate choice in Iowa had “definitely” made up their minds. And the Times/Siena poll found 39% of likely caucus-goers have yet to make a final decision.

The impeachment trial of President Donald Trump will keep Sanders in Washington, along with the other senators in the race -- Warren, Klobuchar and Michael Bennet of Colorado -- for much of the key time.

Sanders acknowledged as much at a rally in Marshalltown, Iowa Saturday.

“We’ve had to radically change our schedule in the past week, toss it into the garbage can and begin anew,” Sanders said. “But we are going to be back in Iowa this week in every place we possibly can.”

The CBS poll suggested missing out on a final candidate handshakes or town-hall meeting won’t have a big effect, though. Two-thirds of Iowa Democrats said senators spending time at the impeachment trial won’t make a difference to their vote.

To contact the reporter on this story: Emma Kinery in Washington at ekinery@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Derek Wallbank at dwallbank@bloomberg.net, Ros Krasny

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