Rewards Outweigh Risks for Assad in Drive to Retake Idlib
Rewards Outweigh Risks for Assad in Offensive to Retake Idlib
(Bloomberg) -- With his decision to make a final push to retake Idlib province, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is walking a perilous line between risking retaliation from neighboring Turkey and saving his economy and moving closer to restoring the nation’s territorial integrity.
At its heart, the offensive against Turkish-backed rebels and al-Qaeda militants reflects Assad’s long-held desire to rebuild Idlib as a bridge to reconnect Aleppo, once the nation’s productive engine, to the capital, Damascus, and coastal areas. That’s become especially vital with his economy screaming under the impact of almost a decade of war, sanctions and neighboring Lebanon’s financial crisis.
Retaking Idlib could mark a tentative start to rebuilding an economy that the United Nations estimates needs more than $250 billion in aid — the kind of money its wartime allies, Iran and Russia, can’t provide. In the past year, the value of the Syrian pound has almost halved to 1,000 to the dollar.
“Assad has wanted to expand his territorial control in Idlib and Aleppo to primarily settle the conflict and regain trade connections between Aleppo and the rest of the country,” said Ayham Kamel, head of Middle East and North Africa research at the Eurasia Group. “The importance of that has grown over time, especially with the problems in Lebanon.”
Timing has been key. Russia’s commitment to provide air cover for pro-Damascus forces and President Donald Trump’s withdrawal of the U.S. from the Syrian theater of operations gave Assad a green light to finish what he regards as a key step in physically reuniting the Syrian nation.
The danger of his strategy is plain in the current fighting. Turkish forces are pouring in to stave off the fall of Syria’s last major rebel stronghold. They’ve struck dozens of targets in Syria in retaliation for attacks by Syrian forces that killed at least 14 Turks in the northwestern province this month.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pledged Wednesday to defend his military’s positions and to expel Syrian forces from the area.
However much Assad’s offensive has complicated relations between Turkey and Russia, President Vladimir Putin hasn’t eased support for Syria’s drive to eliminate Islamist militant groups in Idlib. Turkey stationed troops in the province under a 2017 deal with Russia and Iran to curtail fighting there and prevent a new exodus of refugees from heading toward its border.
After Erdogan and Putin spoke by phone on Wednesday, Moscow appeared to harden its tone toward Turkey.
“The real reason for the crisis in the Idlib de-escalation zone is, unfortunately, the failure of our Turkish colleagues to fulfill their obligations,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement.
Read more about Russia pinning blame on Turkey for first time
The two leaders struck a deal at Sochi in September 2018 that provided for the creation of a demilitarized zone in Idlib between Syrian government troops and opposition groups. It required “radical militants” to withdraw from the area and provided for Turkish and Russian forces to conduct joint monitoring of the zone, as well as allowing the restoration of key transit routes to Aleppo.
While Moscow is willing to mediate between Turkey and the Syrian government to avoid “unnecessary clashes” between them, said Elena Suponina, a Moscow-based Middle East expert, “Ankara will have to accept the fact that Syrian troops have taken back a number of key locations in Idlib province and these troops won’t withdraw.”
And as the human cost of the campaign has risen, Assad has little choice to persist until he’s re-established control, according to a European diplomat in the region.
When Turkey told Syria to withdraw in the initial days of the offensive, the response was: too many soldiers have been sacrificed; it is impossible to turn back, the diplomat said.
“Damascus never budged in its desire to regain ‘every inch of Syria,’” said Dareen Khalifa, a senior analyst on Syria at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. “Idlib is no exception to that.”
Confronting pro-Turkish forces also has another payoff for Assad: potentially warmer ties with the Gulf nations, which see Turkey as a threat because of its support for Islamist militant groups.
“He’s become quite useful on containing the Turks,” said Kamel. “Syria under Assad is a buffer state.”
--With assistance from Ilya Arkhipov, Selcan Hacaoglu, Tony Halpin and David Wainer.
To contact the reporters on this story: Sylvia Westall in Dubai at swestall@bloomberg.net;Donna Abu-Nasr in Riyadh at dabunasr@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Benjamin Harvey at bharvey11@bloomberg.net, Karl Maier, Amy Teibel
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