Powell Pressure, German Recession Risk, Tariff Targets: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) --

Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your Thursday started:

• The Federal Reserve is likely to be under greater pressure to cut the benchmark interest rate this month with stocks and factory data slumping this week
  • Still, Chicago Federal Reserve chief Charles Evans told Bloomberg TV today that the recent weakness in manufacturing hasn’t yet convinced him to cut again
• It’s U.S. jobs day tomorrow, and payroll forecasts are so weak that they echo months when disasters hit the nation
• Doyne Farmer traces his research exposing risks in the financial system to the roulette wheels of Las Vegas. Now the chaos scientist is turning his eye to central bank forecasting
  • Here’s how Bloomberg Economics is charting the global outlook into 2020
• Germany’s economic woes are becoming more pronounced, with a sharp slowdown in services suggesting the pain from its industrial crisis is spreading
• Meanwhile, the broader euro-area economy stagnated at the end of the third quarter, held back by an industrial recession and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in services
• The U.K.’s services industry unexpectedly contracted last month as the nation’s dominant sector became the latest victim of escalating uncertainty over the EU divorce
• Irish and Scotch whiskies, wine, olives and cheese are among the targets in fresh tariffs the U.S. is set to slap on Europe after a World Trade Organization ruling in the Americans’ favor
• Policy makers in Turkey are dueling over whether to cut rates over a slide in inflation, while the central bank chief has signaled a moderation in easing
• Finally, here’s the first episode of a new season of the Stephanomics podcast, looking at how the trade war has already caused a recession for America’s factories

To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Lucy Meakin

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