Poll Flags Risk Census Will Undercount Some Younger Americans

(Bloomberg) -- While the overwhelming majority of adults have heard of the 2020 U.S. Census and plan to participate, a new poll shows only two-thirds of those under 30 say they probably or definitely will fill out the census form.

That contrasts with older generations, like the 90% of adults age 50 to 64 and the 97% of those 65 and older who say the same, according to a Pew Research Center survey of 6,878 people taken online Sept. 16-29. Part of this divide likely reflects the fact that this is the youngest age group’s first census.

Another issue could be a result of the disparity between those who have heard something about the census recently. Only a third of those age 18 to 29 say they have seen or heard something within the last month or so related to the census. For those in the 30 to 49 cohort, that number jumps to 51%.

The census determines federal funding for schools and programs such as food stamps as well as the number of representatives each state has in Congress.

When looking at Census Bureau research on undercounts, young adults as a group are not undercounted, said D’Vera Cohn, one of the authors of the report. But “there are parts of the younger population that are more likely to be undercounted.”

“A lot of the undercount numbers about age turn out to be about black and Hispanic young adults,” Cohn said.

Looking at all U.S. adults, black and Hispanic adults, along with lower-income adults, were more likely to say they probably or definitely will not participate in the census or that they might or might not. In the 2010 count, the Census Bureau estimated it missed 2.1% of the black population and 1.5% of Hispanics.

The bureau has found in the past that the actual response rate is lower than those who say they plan to respond, augmenting concerns around undercounting various demographic groups.

The Pew poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.6 percentage points.

To contact the reporter on this story: Reade Pickert in Washington at epickert@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Scott Lanman at slanman@bloomberg.net, Vince Golle

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