One Fed Hike, Canadian Budget, One-Handed Economists: Eco Day

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Welcome to Monday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• The Federal Reserve will bring the current cycle of interest-rate increases to an end after one more hike later this year, a Bloomberg survey of economists shows. Simon Kennedy reports the Fed will reinforce the view it’s not hiking for a while as policy makers gather this week
• Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivers his fourth and final budget this week before Canada’s next election. The fiscal plan comes with the economy in a soft patch, concerns building over the country’s competitiveness and the Liberal government trailing in opinion polls
• “Give me a one handed economist,” a frustrated U.S. President Harry Truman once said. “All my economists say, ‘on the one hand...on the other.’” Always happy to oblige, Bloomberg Economics’ Tom Orlik ties one hand behind his back and addresses six big questions for the global economy
• Two of the Brazilian central bank’s newest board members, Governor Roberto Campos Neto and Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Bruno Serra Fernandes, ran trading desks at large banks. Are their market backgrounds at all predictive of their inclinations as policy makers? If past is prologue, yes, according to Bloomberg Economics’s Adriana Dupita
• Europe’s economy hasn’t given investors much cheer over the past year, but some are saying there are positive surprises in store
• The European Central Bank is approaching the point where it needs to decide whether if negative interest rates are more problem than solution
  • The ECB says its bond-buying program was $3 trillion well spent
• Japan’s exports fell for a third straight month in February, as a global economic slowdown and waning technology cycle take a toll
• Low inflation sweeping across Southeast Asia is here to stay, raising the odds some of the region’s biggest economies may reverse course on interest rates this year

To contact the reporter on this story: Zoe Schneeweiss in London at zschneeweiss@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Fergal O'Brien at fobrien@bloomberg.net, Brian Swint

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