Next U.S. Recession Seen Beginning in 2020: Zillow/Pulsenomics

(Bloomberg) -- Mark your calendar. The next U.S. recession will begin in 2020, a survey says.

More than half of the 105 real estate experts and economists in the quarterly survey by housing data provider Zillow and research firm Pulsenomics LLC point to “monetary policy as the likeliest cause.”

Fed officials have signaled at least three rate increases this year. A year ago. a geopolitical crisis was seen as the most likely cause of the next recession by survey panelists.

In the meantime, the housing market is expected to see stronger price appreciation than forecast a year ago with home values rising 5.5 percent to a median of $220,800 in 2018, according to Zillow and Pulsenomics. Last year, forecasts called for a 3.7 percent gain.

A separate Fannie Mae survey forecasts home prices will rise 3.9 percent over the next 12 months.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Stephen Foxwell at sfoxwell@bloomberg.net, Vincent Del Giudice, Kristy Scheuble

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