New York Sees Signs of Omicron Peak While ICUs Remain Pressured
New York Sees Signs of Omicron Peak While ICUs Remain Pressured
(Bloomberg) -- New York’s Covid-19 infections may have reached a peak, about a month after the city’s first case of the omicron variant was identified.
The seven-day average of people visiting New York emergency departments with Covid-like illness has dipped significantly in all five boroughs since the end of December, according to data from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. The Bronx saw the biggest drop, with the 7-day average retreating 35% in the week through Friday.
Citywide, the rate of positive tests also appears to be declining, with the 7-day average down to 31% on Thursday, from a peak of 34% on Jan. 2.
New York officials warned the recent data are subject to revisions and are affected to a degree by the holiday effect, which can artificially depress trend lines due to delays or underreporting. Gatherings during the New Year’s Eve holiday could also prolong the Covid spike.
“What we are looking for is a deceleration in the rate of growth and we’re not seeing that yet, but that’s what I’m looking for in the data to say we may be approaching the peak in the coming weeks,” said New York City Health Commissioner Dave Chokshi, in a Jan. 5 briefing.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul on Friday said it was too early to call a Covid peak but the data over the last few days made her “hopeful” that “hospitalizations should start seeing the beginnings of a plateau.” State Health Commissioner Mary Bassett told New Yorkers to expect a difficult January and that “things should be much better by February.”
Still, it’s clear that the exponential growth of omicron cases in the U.S. financial capital has moderated dramatically, echoing the reversal seen in South Africa, where the variant was first identified. That has big implications for the city’s economic comeback, which relies on public workers whose ranks have been thinned at hospitals, schools and subways due to the Covid surge. A decline in cases could also prompt banks and other private businesses to bring their employees back to office buildings, which helps spur spending at the local level.
Under Pressure
Cases and hospitalizations typically remain high for weeks after a peak and that’s also expected with omicron. In the U.S., many governments and schools tie Covid-19 policy decisions to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s color-coded “community transmission” scale, and New York is likely to stay in the “high” transmission category for some time, even if further data continues to bear out a positive trend.
Hospitals will also remain under pressure. The waves typically reach young and more socially active people first, before finding their way to the older and more vulnerable part of the population. Omicron is proving no different, and any suggestion of a peak is much more tenuous among older New Yorkers.
Among those 75-and-over, the seven-day average of emergency department visits with Covid-like illness was up Friday in Brooklyn, Queens and Staten Island from a week earlier and essentially flat in the other boroughs.
Likewise, the number of intensive-care unit Covid patients who are intubated is still climbing in the city, up 61% in the week through Jan. 6, New York State Department of Health data show.
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